Jul 25, 2012 Fantasy Draft Rankings
SG Rankings Updated Oct. 8. Our 2012-2013 NBA Fantasy Basketball Shooting Guard Draft Rankings will be updated throughout the offseason and training camp, so check back weekly for updated rankings.
The following rankings are based on the FBD scoring system, which you can find HERE.
I also use these rankings for all of my cash game play at FANDUEL. Daily cash games and tournaments at Fanduel are highly addictive for guys who like daily fantasy action. Registration at Fanduel is free and you can deposit with Paypal or a credit card.
Kobe Bryant (LAL, 37.4 FPS) – Kobe bounced back nicely last season and got his minutes back to 38.5 per game, up from the 33.9 MPG he played in 2011. His stats followed as he posted 27.9 points, 5.4 rebounds, 4.6 assists and 1.2 steals. He attempted 4.9 threes per game, but his three point percentage was weak at just 30.3%. This season should be a big one for Bryant now that he has Steve Nash running the point. Expect some prime feeds from Nash and maybe a scoring title for Kobe this season.
Oct. 8 – Kobe is having some early foot problems, but at least it isn’t his knee or his finger. He should be good to go for the regular season and maybe it’s a good thing that he’s getting some rest this preseason.
Dwyane Wade (MIA, 34.9 FPS) - Wade played through a knee injury in 2012 and it really hurt his stats and also caused him to play a career low 33.2 MPG. He recently underwent a quick 20 minute surgery to clean the knee up and doctors reported that everything looked fine. He should be completely healed by mid-September. When Wade is healthy, he’s the best shooting guard in the league, the question is whether he’ll be healthy enough to get his minutes back to the 35-37 MPG ange, much like Kobe did last season. Another thing to consider is that the Heat brought in Ray Allen, who also plays shooting guard, which may cut into Wade’s minutes. If Wade’s minutes remain in the 33-35 range, then I’ve got to list him second to Kobe.
Oct. 8 – Wade’s knee is starting to concern me a little. He’s back at practice, but I keep seeing reports on how the Heat intend on limiting him this season and having Ray Allen take a portion of Wade’s minutes. Wade is still number two on the SG board, but not as strongly as in seasons past.
Monta Ellis (MIL, 30.3 FPS) – Ellis was traded to the Bucks last season and his fantasy stats declined from his days in Golden State. The biggest drop was in the number of shot attempts from 19 in Golden State to just 16 in Milwaukee. His scoring dropped from 21.9 in Golden State to 17.6 in Milwaukee. The main culprit in the drop was that he cut his three point shots to 2.1 per game, down from 4.2. That was probably a wise move considering that Ellis is just a 32.7% three point shooter. Ellis put up 18 and 4 with 6 assists and 1.4 steals in Milwaukee and he should be able to keep those stats, with possibly a bump back above 20 points per game.
Oct. 8 – The only concern I’ve run across with Ellis is his contract status. He’s more than likely gone from Milwaukee after this season and the danger is that he gets traded to a bad situation before this season’s trade deadline. He’s still a solid number three on the SG board.
Joe Johnson (BN, 26.5 FPS) – Johnson is going to be fun to watch this season in Brooklyn alongside Deron Williams. Much like the bump Kobe will see with Nash, Johnson should see the same with Williams. Johnson was able to put up 19 and 4 with 4 assists per game in 2012. He was great with the three ball, attempting 5.4 per game and hitting them at a 38.8% rate. He should get just as many chances for threes in Brooklyn, although his assist numbers could drop a little with Williams running the show.
Eric Gordon (NOR, 27.7 FPS) – Gordon suffered a right knee injury in 2012 and missed all but nine games. He’s back in New Orleans with a $58 million dollar contract, but I’m not convinced that he’s too happy to be there. He had signed with the Suns, but New Orleans matched the offer, forcing Gordon to return. The key for Gordon’s ranking will be the health of the knee, which we won’t really know until camp gets started. If healthy, he has the ability to match his 2011 stats of 22.3 points, 2.9 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.1 three pointers. The Hornets are young and will likely be rolling out a starting lineup with two rookies, so Gordon could really take hold of the offense if New Orleans hopes to stay in many games this season, and that could benefit fantasy owners.
DOWN – Oct. 8 – I was really liking Gordon a month ago, but it doesn’t seem like his knee is healing up as expected and you have to wonder how much of that is simply a bad attitude given the way the Hornets treated him this offseason. Gordon was set to join the Suns and was good as gone when the Hornets matched their offer and pulled Gordon back into a situation that he really didn’t want to be in. If this knee situation drags out for another couple of weeks, then I’ll have no choice but to start dropping him down the rankings.
Paul George (IND, 22.7 FPS) – George is one of my favorite up and coming young players. He logged 29.7 minutes a game in his sophomore NBA season, putting up 12 and 6 with 2.4 assists and 1.6 steals. He attempted 3.5 threes per game, hitting 38.5% of them. George is a solid 6’8, 210 pounds and plays good defense against some of the better shooting guards in the league, so that in itself should keep him on the floor. Hopefully, he can make the jump to the 34-36 MPG range and his stats should continue to develop. He’s not a known quantity yet, so you might be able to get a bargain on him come draft day.
UP – Oct. 8 – I looks like the Pacers intend on keeping George Hill as strictly a point guard and not working him in at SG to compete with George. Right now Lance Stephenson appears to be the backup to SG, which means George could be in line for bigger minutes than expected.
Marcus Thornton (SAC, 25.9 FPS) – Thornton quietly had another solid season in 2012 going for 19 and 4 with 1.9 assists and 1.4 steals. His biggest fantasy attribute was the 6.1 three point attempts per game that he hit at a 34.5% rate. His 18.7 points per game was the best on the Kings roster. Thornton could find himself in a sixth man type role this season if the Kings are concerned about playing Tyreke Evans at small forward. They recently brought in James Johnson and John Salmons is also still on the roster. Even if he ends up in a sixth man role, he’s still going to get 32-35 minutes a game, which should allow him to put up some solid stats.
Down – Oct. 8 – Thornton is getting squeezed out of the starting lineup and looks to be coming off the bench this season. There are a lot of guys who have good value as sixth men and Thornton should be one of them, but it’s way nicer to be guaranteed starters minutes when using a high draft pick, and it will still take a high pick to nab Thornton.
James Harden (OKC, 24.8 FPS) – Harden has been stuck in a platoon with Thabo Sefolosha for the past couple of seasons, but that should end this year. Harden logged 31.4 MPG in 2012 and it wouldn’t surprise me to see that total climb to the 33-35 range this season. He had a great season shooting the ball increasing his FG% to 49.3%, up from the 43.6% he posted in 2011. The scoring also improved to a solid 16.7 points with 3.7 assists and 4.1 rebounds. He was deadly accurate with the three ball, putting up 4.7 per game and hitting them at a 39.0% rate. Harden should be a solid pick, especially if the Thunder do away with the shooting guard platoon situation.
Klay Thompson (GSW, 17.3 FPS) – Thompson had a great rookie season and now looks to be the starting shooting guard after the Warriors traded away Monta Ellis. Thompson logged 24.3 MPG game, putting up 13 and 3 with a couple assists per game. He is really strong with the three ball, attempting 4.1 per game and hitting 41.4% of them. If he can work up to 32-34 MPG, he should be good for 17 and 4 with 3.0 assists and 1.0 steals. He could also work his three point shooting up to the 5-6 attempts per game range. I’m ranking him this high based on the potential for a huge jump in stats this season.
UP – Oct. 8 – Thompson has the starting SG spot locked up and he might be getting more minutes than originally expected. The Warriors will play Brandon Rush at SF this season, which leaves no real competition for minutes at the SG spot. Thompson could easiliy be looking at 35 minutes a game.
Kevin Martin (HOU, 22.4 FPS) – As usual, Kevin Martin suffered another injury that took away about a third of his season. He only logged 31.3 MPG, which was his lowest total in the last 8 seasons. His scoring was down to 17.1 per game, with a very weak shooting percentage of 41.3%. He’s still taking threes, firing up 5.6 per game and hitting 34.7%. The Rockets are a mess right now and really don’t have much to play for this season, but Martin should be their leading scorer and you can count on him for fantasy threes. Unfortunately, Martin is one of the better known shooting guards and most owners will overrate him on draft day which will probably make him more expensive than you will want to pay.
Down – Oct. 8 – Houston is a mess and I’m guessing his days in Houston are numbered. There’s a good chance that the Rockets will want to work in their youth and that means a decrease in minutes for Martin. He’s also a yearly injury risk.
Lou Williams (ATL, 21.9 FPS) – Williams finally escaped Philadelphia and landed with the Hawks in the starting shooting guard spot abandoned by Joe Johnson. This should be a great opportunity for Williams and make him a top 10 option at shooting guard in most fantasy leagues. His game is much like Joe Johnson’s in that he provides you points and assists with good steals and threes. Williams only got 26.3 MPG last season, but if you project his stats out to 36 MPG you get 20.5 points, 3.3 rebounds, 4.7 assists, 1.1 steals and 4.9 threes attempted. His only fantasy weakness is his career 42.1 FG%, but his career free throw percentage is solid at 79.8%. Keep an eye on how the Hawks structure their rotation to determine how much sleeper value there is with Williams.
Manu Ginobili (SAS, 21.0 FPS) – Ginobili will be 35 years old this season and he was only able to log 23.3 minutes a game last season. I’ve got him ranked on about 28-30 MPG this season, so if he can’t reach that mark, his ranking will fall. 2012 was clearly a down season for Manu as he posted lows across the board including 12.9 points, 3.4 rebounds, 4.4 assists, .7 steals and 3.7 three pointers attempted. If he can return to 30 minutes a game, he should be able to post something close to 2011′s stats of 17 and 4 with 5 assists and 1.5 steals. This could be San Antonio’s last real shot at a title, so look for Ginobili to give it his best.
O.J Mayo (DAL, 19.3 FPS) – Mayo recently signed with the Dallas Mavericks to replace Jason Terry and could see a role much like the one Terry played off the bench as sixth man. The Mavs still have Vince Carter and Delonte West, so minutes could be a concern until things shake out in training camp. Mayo has the talent, he just needs starter’s minutes. Mayo got 26.8 MPG last season and put up 13 and 3 with 2.6 assists and 1.1 steals. He’s a solid three point shooter, taking 4.2 per game and hitting 36.4% of them. His final ranking will depend on his playing time.
UP – Oct. 8 – It’s official, Mayo has earned the starting SG spot for the Mavericks. His minutes look secure and there’s a good chance he returns to the level of production that he had in his first two NBA seasons.
Rodney Stuckey (DET, 21.3 FPS) – Stuckey should probably be listed as a shooting guard, but I’m going to keep him at point guard until I see where the major fantasy sites list him. Stuckey’s 42.4 FG% has always been the one factor holding him back from becoming a valuable fantasy contributor. He’s a combo type guard who saw the floor for 29.9 MPG last season, putting up 15 and 3 with 3.8 assists and .8 steals. He isn’t a very good three point shooter, attempting just 1.9 per game and hitting them at a weak 31.7% rate. The Pistons traded away Ben Gordon, so Stuckey should be able to secure the starting shooting guard spot and log some big minutes. If he can get 33-35 MPG, then his ranking will be justified.
UP – Oct. 7 – I moved Stuckey from the point guard rankings board to the shooting guard board. It looks like Brandon Knight is locked in at PG, with Stuckey set at shooting guard.
DeMar DeRozan (TOR, 22.2 FPS) - The Toronto Raptors haven’t been too thrilled with DeRozan and they proceeded to pickup Terrence Ross in the 2012 NBA Draft. DeRozan is still just 22 years old, but he’s going to have to take the next step this season, especially since he’ll be gunning for a new contract next summer. DeRozan’s biggest weakness is his shooting ability. He posted a 42.2 FG% last season, down from the 46.7% he shot in 2011. The primary reason for this is that the Raptors asked him to start shooting the three, which he did 1.5 times a game, and he could only manage 26.1% on them. Toronto is asking him to be something that he’s just not. DeRozan does much better when he takes it strongly to the basket. He’s great at drawing fouls, as evidenced by his 5.3 free throw attempts per game, which he hit at an excellent 81.0%. If the Raptors will just let him play his game, he should bounce back with 17 and 4 with a couple of assists and and a steal per game.
Update 8/24: There appears to be a position battle brewing between DeRozan and newly drafted Terrence Ross. If Ross starts cutting into DeRozan’s minutes, then I’m going to have to adjust DeRozan down a few spots.
Jason Terry (BOS, 21.9 FPS) – Terry joined the Celtics this summer to replace the departed Ray Allen. The Celtics are high on Avery Bradley, but there is some concern that Bradley might not be ready for the season due to shoulder issues. Even if Bradley is ready, I still think Terry gets 31-33 MPG as the Celtics try to make a final run before age catches up with them. At worst, Terry remains a sixth man getting 30 MPG. Jet played 31.7 MPG in 2012, putting up 15 and 3 with 3.6 assists and 1.2 steals. He’s a valuable fantasy asset with the three ball taking 5.8 per game and hitting 38.0% over his career. That’s a pretty good replacement for Ray Allen.
Arron Afflalo (ORL, 21.0 FPS) – Afflalo has turned in a couple of good seasons, but he’s 26 years old so there probably isn’t much room for improvement. He posted 15 and 3 with 2.4 assists and 3.6 threes attempted. He’s got excellent shooting percentages with a career 46.6 FG% and 80.0 FT%. Afflalo should be the starting shooting guard for the Nuggets and get 33-35 MPG this season. He should be able to easily match last season’s stats, but probably not much more.
Update 8/24: Now that Afflalo has been shipped to Orlando as part of the Dwight Howard trade, he’s going to get a little competition from J.J. Redick. I still think that Afflalo has the opportunity to be the primary scoring option for the rebuilding Magic, but having someone like Redick cutting into your playing time doesn’t help your fantasy value. Keep an eye on the distribution of minutes during camp.
Ray Allen (MIA, 20.8 FPS) – Allen’s ranking could change a lot depending on how the Heat set up their rotation. In an ideal fantasy situation, they would play Dwyane Wade at point guard and give Allen the starting shooting guard spot. However, more likely is that Allen plays a sixth man type role but still gets around 30 minutes per game. If he can log 30-32 minutes, he should be good for 14 and 3 with 2.5 assists and 1.0 steal.
Wesley Matthews (POR, 21.1 FPS) – Matthews turned in his second consecutive season with 33 MPG, but his stats declined in 2012 due to poor shooting. He posted 14 and 3 with 1.7 assists and 1.4 steals. Matthews was an odd case last season with a 41.2 overall FG% on 11.6 shot attempts per game, however 5.1 of those attempts were from three point range and he just nailed them at a 38.3% rate. He’s got a career three point percentage of 39.3%, so he just needs a little work on the two point shot and his FG% should bounce back.
Jamal Crawford (LAC, 19.5 FPS) – Crawford signed with the Clippers for the upcoming season where he’ll fill his usual role of sixth man. Crawford has excelled in this role over the last three seasons and has averaged about 30 minutes per game, which is what he’ll probably get in LA. There is the chance that Chauncey Billups doesn’t recover completely and Crawford gets more minutes to start the season. He’s primarily a scorer and doesn’t offer much outside that other than about 3.0 assists per game. He’ll probably put up 4 threes a game and hit them somewhere around his career 34.8% mark. If you are looking for scoring, assists and threes late in the draft, he’s a good pick, just don’t expect much outside those categories.
Update 8/24: Chauncey Billups is not recovering well from his achilles injury and the Clippers expect him to miss the start of the season. Crawford will see his role and fantasy value increase without Billups on the court.
Evan Turner (PHI, 18.2 FPS) – The Sixers let Lou Williams walk, so it looks like Turner is the man now at shooting guard for Philly. He got 26.4 MPG last season and could possibly bump that up to 30-32 a game if he can beat out Jodie Meeks for the spot. Turner averaged 9.4 points, 5.8 rebounds and 2.8 assists. The 5.8 rebounds is a pretty big number for a shooting guard. Unfortunately, he doesn’t offer much in steals or three point shooting, and his 44.6 FG% and 67.6 FT% weren’t that great either. Keep an eye on him in camp to determine what his exact role will be.
Update 8/24: The Sixers are moving Turner into the starting small forward spot after the trade of Andre Iguodala. It’s probably a good move for his fantasy value, but keep an eye on how many minutes he actually gets before determining his final draft ranking.
Bradley Beal (WAS, Rookie) – I’m not exactly sure what to make of Beal or know if he’s even going to have a starting spot this year, but if he does get a starting job, his ranking will rise quickly. He’s a great shooter and can spread the floor for the Wizards, which should help John Wall greatly. He’s got to contend with Jordan Crawford for minutes at the shooting guard spot, but if he can outshoot Crawford’s career 39.4 FG% number, then he’s going to play. He’s a must draft in keeper leagues.
Gerald Henderson (CHA, 22.3 FPS) – Henderson had a great season for the Bobcats playing 33.3 MPG and putting up 15 and 4 with 2.3 assists and .9 steals. I would have ranked him higher except for the fact that Charlotte brought in Ben Gordon. Henderson has no three point shot at all and Gordon is a career 40.6% shooter from that range. If the Bobcats want three point shooting from the SG spot, Gordon is going to get the minutes and kill Henderson’s fantasy value. It’s a position battle that we’ll have to keep an eye on in camp.
Jason Richardson (ORL, 18.9 FPS) – Richardson is only 31 years old, but it kind of felt like he was slipping due to age issues last season. He only logged 29.5 MPG, posting 12 and 4 with 2 assists and a steal per game. You will probably only be drafting Richardson for his threes this season. He attempted 5.1 per game and has a career 37.2% mark from three point range. Keep an eye on the battle between Richardson and JJ Redick in camp.
Brandon Roy (MIN) – I have to give Roy a spot in the top 25, even with the fact that he’s been out of basketball for a long time. I’ve seen some reports that he’s looking pretty good and that his knees are holding up well, but I’m not totally convinced. However, I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt and give him a spot on the list based on the potential for huge upside if he can maintain his health. I’ll be keeping an eye on him in training camp.
Update 8/24: The Wolves have signed Alexey Shved to compete with Roy for minutes at shooting guard. Shved looks like a pretty good player with excellent playmaking skills and could definitely steal some of Roy’s minutes. Definitely an interesting position battle developing.
Chauncey Billups (LAC, 21.0 FPS) – Billups is trying to recover from a left achilles injury and may not be ready for the start of the season. Even more detrimental is the fact that the Clippers brought in Jamal Crawford. Crawford should get 30-32 minutes per game and most of those minutes will come at the expense of the 35 year old Billups. If Billups becomes a 26-28 minutes player, then he just isn’t going to be that big of a fantasy asset, especially if he isn’t 100% healthy. See how his achilles injury heals up and then adjust the ranking accordingly.
Update 8/24: Billups isn’t recovering well from his achilles injury and is now expected to miss the start of the season. Billups will be 36 this season and injuries just don’t heal as quickly, or as completely, at that age. Be careful drafting him.
Richard Hamilton (CHI) – Hamilton is a new add to the SG board after seeing good reports on his health. He’s locked in as the starting shooting guard on a Bulls team that needs scoring. Hamilton is a scorer, but he also has solid assist totals over his career and he might be making more this year with Rose out. He’s worth a look if you are desperate for a shooting guard.
Added Oct. 8.
Jordan Crawford (WAS) – John Wall’s knee injury should give Crawford some short term value, but just don’t expect that value to last once Wall returns. Once Wall is healthy, the Wizards should start to work Bradley Beal into the rotation at shooting guard due to his superior FG%.
Added Oct. 8.
Other Shooting Guards looking to break into the Top 25:
Avery Bradley (Injured)