Handicapping Pick of the Day: Boston at Cleveland (10/27/09)
Oct 27, 2009 Picks
[FantasyBasketballDaily.com, October 27, 2009] Today’s game of the day is the first game of the TNT Doubleheader at 7:30 pm EST. Boston heads to Cleveland in what should be a low scoring defensive battle. The current line on the game is Cleveland -4.5 with a total of 185.
This game started out at 186.5. The pace of the game should be like watching paint dry. Adding Shaq isn’t going to speed Cleveland up any, likewise for the recovering Kevin Garnett. Last season Cleveland played at an 88.7 pace while Boston played at a 90.4 pace. League average was 91.7. In addition to the snails pace, both of these teams have excellent defenses. Last season Boston was 2nd in the league with a 102.3 rating while Cleveland was 3rd in the league with a 102.4 rating. League average was 108.3. These defenses are so tough because they just suffocate opponents’ shooting. Cleveland was the 2nd best in the league allowing opponents to shoot only 46.8 eFG%, while Boston was 3rd in the league only allowing opponents a 47.0 eFG%.
Cleveland is missing Delonte West. Boston will most likely limit Kevin Garnett to as few minutes as they can get away with.
Everything points to this being a low scoring affair and I’m going with the Under 185.
PICK: Boston @ Cleveland Under 185
2009-2010 NBA Betting Season Win Totals (10/21/09)
Oct 21, 2009 Picks
I have posted the 2009-2010 NBA Season Win Totals below. I’m really liking the over 41.5 for Washington, over 40.5 for Philadelphia and over 40.5 for Toronto.
2009-2010 NBA Season – 2009-2010 NBA Season Win Totals:
Atlanta Hawks
Over 45.5 (-115)
Under 45.5 (-115)
Boston Celtics
Over 57.5 (-115)
Under 57.5 (-115)
Charlotte Bobcats
Over 35.5 (-115)
Under 35.5 (-115)
Chicago Bulls
Over 41.5 (-115)
Under 41.5 (-115)
Cleveland Cavaliers
Over 61.5 (-120)
Under 61.5 (-115)
Dallas Mavericks
Over 48.5 (-120)
Under 48.5 (-115)
Denver Nuggets
Over 53.5 (-115)
Under 53.5 (-115)
Detroit Pistons
Over 40.5 (-115)
Under 40.5 (-115)
Golden State Warriors
Over 34.5 (-115)
Under 34.5 (-115)
Houston Rockets
Over 36.5 (-115)
Under 36.5 (-115)
Indiana Pacers
Over 34.5 (-115)
Under 34.5 (-115)
Los Angeles Clippers
Over 34.5 (-115)
Under 34.5 (-115)
Los Angeles Lakers
Over 62.5 (-120)
Under 62.5 (-115)
Memphis Grizzlies
Over 27.5 (-115)
Under 27.5 (-115)
Miami Heat
Over 41.5 (-115)
Under 41.5 (-115)
Milwaukee Bucks
Over 28.5 (-115)
Under 28.5 (-115)
Minnesota Timberwolves
Over 27.5 (-115)
Under 27.5 (-115)
New Jersey Nets
Over 27.5
Under 27.5
New Orleans Hornets
Over 46.5
Under 46.5 (-120)
New York Knicks
Over 31.5 (-115)
Under 31.5 (-115)
Oklahoma City Thunder
Over 34.5 (-115)
Under 34.5 (-115)
Orlando Magic
Over 57.5 (-120)
Under 57.5
Philadelphia 76ers
Over 40.5 (-120)
Under 40.5
Phoenix Suns
Over 40.5
Under 40.5 (-120)
Portland Trailblazers
Over 53.5 (-115)
Under 53.5 (-115)
Sacramento Kings
Over 23.5 (-105)
Under 23.5 (-125)
San Antonio Spurs
Over 54.5 (-115)
Under 54.5 (-115)
Toronto Raptors
Over 40.5 (-115)
Under 40.5 (-115)
Utah Jazz
Over 50.5 (-115)
Under 50.5 (-115)
Washington Wizards
Over 41.5 (-130)
Under 41.5 (even)
Odds to Win the 2009-2010 NBA Finals (10/10/09)
Oct 10, 2009 Picks
Fantasy Sports Games Played for Real Money: Is it Gambling? (9/25/09)
Sep 25, 2009 Picks
I’m not sure how many of you are playing the daily fantasy contests that are popping up around the web, but I got into a conversation with someone recently about whether these fantasy games were considered ‘gambling’. In my opinion, they are absolutely gambling and as a smart gambler, you better treat them as such and heed the dangers that lurk within these fantasy gambling games.
The guy I was discussing the matter with based his argument on the fact that these were games of skill and were therefore not gambling. He even went as far as to say the goverment was even on his side, since they also consider them ’games of skill’ and even made them legal to play. I had to disagree with him, the government is just wrong here. By the way, the government is the very same entity that brings you the various state lotteries. You think that isn’t gambling? Is there any skill at all to the lottery? But it is legal, right? How about betting on real basketball games, is that gambling? Is it legal? Does it require skill and work to analyze matchups to determine a great betting opportunity? Just because there is an issue of skill involved in something, that doesn’ t eliminate it from the category of ‘gambling’. Analyzing and betting real NBA games requires just as much work as analyzing matchups and choosing a fantasy team to bet on. Exact same skill, one is legal, one isn’t.
So what makes one legal and the other not? Is it the ‘chance’ or ‘luck’ factor? Is it the fact you can lose a real money bet on a last second fumble, miracle useless last second 3 pointer or missed kick? Doesn’t that happen in real life AND in fantasy contests? Maybe Gerald Wallace gets a concussion on the opening tip, you lose him and your fantasy team crashes and burns. Unlucky?
My point here isn’t to decide the legality of fantasy betting versus real game betting or whether the government draws arbitrary definitions in their ‘game of skill’ reasoning. My point here is that they are both gambling. So what should regular gamblers take away from this? That you better watch the things that would normally beat you as a gambler – THE JUICE.
I’ve bet on sports for a long time. I even had periods of time where I supported myself solely through sports betting. After thousands of bets, I’ve learned that it isn’t the last second field goal, the unexpected fumble or miracle 3 point shot that causes a gambler to lose. Those things all even out in the long run. I’ve probably won just as many bets in the last minute of the game as I’ve lost. The thing that never evens out is the juice that you pay on your bets. It grinds you down in the long run and if you don’t have some advantage against your competition, the juice will slowly make you a losing gambler.
From one gambler to another, I want you guys to realize the juice you are paying with these fantasy games and also how hard it is to overcome that handicap. If you guys realize that handicap and think you can overcome it due to some other edge that you have over the competion, then by all means go for it. But if you don’t have an edge or you don’t put in the necessary work to acquire that edge, then the massive juice on these games will beat you.
Consider this: regular sports betting in Vegas requires a bet 11 to win 10 proposition, which equates to needing 52.4% winners to break even. Sounds easy right? But how many of you guys can truly beat that percentage over an entire season? A majority of the bettors can’t, that is why Vegas and your local bookies thrive.
Now consider a site like Snapdraft.com ( I hate to single them out, but what they are doing is wrong and just shouldn’t be allowed). Snapdraft.com offers a bet 10 to win 6 proposition on their games. They rake 20% right off the top. It takes 62.5% winners just to break even at that site. No matter how good you think you might be, myself included, you cannot beat that juice over a season. You will lose. For example, say you decide to invest $200 and make 20 bets on Snapdraft at $10 each. You have a good night winning 11 bets and losing 9 bets. Pretty good record, you won more than you lost, hitting about 55% winners. There are guys in Vegas that would kill for a 55% record, and would also be very rich with that kind of winning percentage. But what was your bottom line on these fantasy games? You LOST $24.00 or about 11% of your $200 investment. Getting the picture now?
I’m not telling you guys not to play, I’m simply telling you to be smart gamblers. Shop around for the best commissions. Keep an eye on the bottom line and the juice. No matter how slick some of these fantasy game sites look, you have to remember that it is still gambling and you better treat is as such.
Good luck.
Replacement Referees: Influence on 2009-2010 Handicapping and Betting? (9/20/09)
Sep 20, 2009 Picks
Now that the NBA referees have been locked out, we are stuck with replacement refs for at least a portion of the 2009-2010 season. The real question for NBA bettors and handicappers is how this will influence the lines and game results. As if the games weren’t hard enough to handicap based on the actual players, now we have to deal with the referees too.
As we have seen with the Tim Donaghy situation, the refs have tremendous influence over the game results. I found this quote on Donaghy that I thought was fascinating: “During the two years prior (i.e., 03/04 and 04/05) he called significantly less fouls than the average NBA referee (his games scored more than Las Vegas expected only 44% of the time). During his last two seasons he called significantly more fouls than average (his games scored more than Las Vegas expected 57% of the time).” This tends to beg the question for this season’s bettors and linesmakers of ‘how frequently will fouls be called by the replacement refs’? Will the refs allow a very physical game or will they seek to try and keep control of the games with nitpicky foul calling? If they allow a physical game, then which NBA teams benefit from this style of play and how will this affect the point spreads in those games?
And what about the pressure to satisfy the home team? Are these refs going to be biased to the actual court they are on so they don’t get booed out of the arena? Subconciously those guys don’t want to be hated by the fans and even an extra call or two to keep that night’s home fans happy can really affect the line and betting results. Same thing for calls on the ‘all-stars’. Garnett, Allen, Pierce, Rasheed and Rondo on the court versus Harris, Lee, Simmons, Jianlian and Lopez? Who do you think gets the best calls in that matchup from unskilled refs?
I doubt any of the replacement refs will actually do anything dishonest, but these guys get paid very little and have no job security at all since they will likely be fired when the lockout ends. But you definitely have to ask yourself just how susceptible the situation might be to another ‘Donaghy’ type incident. At the very least, the smart money will have a scouting report on most of these replacements and may have advance information on their tendencies to which the public has no access. It definitely makes the first few weeks tricky.
I’m sure the NBA higher ups are meeting with these replacement referees and I’d love to be privy to the instructions they are getting. It sure would make the first few weeks easier to bet knowing how these replacement referees were going to conduct the games.
I wish I could tell you exactly how to use the replacement refs to your advantage, but all I really know at this point is that it might be prudent to be extra selective for the first couple of weeks and maybe keep the betting units small until things sort out. Sometimes your best bet is not to bet.
Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) 9/14/2009
Sep 13, 2009 Picks
Most boxscores only contain the standard FG%, but that statistic is outdated and doesn’t provide a true picture of a players shooting accuracy. I prefer to use the more descriptive ‘Effective Field Goal Percentage’ (eFG%).
Effective field goal percentage is determined by the following formula:
eFG% = (FGM + (.5 x 3PM)) / FGA
The eFG% statistic takes into account how far away from the basket a players shots actually came from. Three pointers are given more credit than two pointers. For example, if you are trying to compare the shooting ability of two players, say Chauncey Billups and Derrick Rose, eFG% can be really helpful. Last season Billups had a FG% of 41.8% while Rose put up a FG% of 47.5%. Seems like a very clear answer, Rose is a better shooter. But you would be incorrect. Plugging in the numbers you get a completely different answer.
Billups: 410 FGM + (.5 x 162 3PM) / 980 FGA = 50.1 eFG%
Rose: 574 FGM + (.5 x 8 3PM) / 1208 FGA = 48.2 eFG%
Now it becomes clear that Billups is actually the better shooter of the two players. Billups puts up a lot of shots at a much greater distance away from the basket than Rose does, which requires better shooting skills.
Now, the real trick is applying this information to make fantasy decisions. For example on one night we have a situation where Rose and Billups are both playing teams with very strong interior defense. Which PG would you want based on FG%? How about on eFG%? Facing a tough interior defense, you definitely want the better outside shooter, which is Billups. You wouldn’t know this if you only used the simple FG%, but the roster decision becomes easy if you use eFG%.
Many people also use True Shooting Percentage (TS%), but I really don’t like that statistic. True shooting percentage combines 2PT shots, 3PT shots and free throw shots to come up with a single number that describes shooting accuracy. I would rather keep ‘challenged’ (field goal) shooting separate from ‘unchallenged’ (free throw) shooting. I prefer to use both eFG% and FT% as separate figures instead of lumping them all together as the TS% does.
Next article I’ll take a look at getting an accurate read on a player’s true rebounding ability.
Efficiency: NBA Offensive/Defensive Ratings for Game Handicapping and Fantasy Analysis (9/7/09)
Sep 7, 2009 Picks
In the last article we took a look at the most basic handicapping stat which was the ‘Possession’. The Possession stat tells you how fast or slow a pace a team plays. Higher pace usually equals higher score, lower pace usually equals lower score. The problem with the raw possession statistic is that it doesn’t actually measure quality, it only measures quantity. Any team can have a high possession statistic if they run the court and shoot in 7 seconds or less, but how good is this offense?
The way we go about determining quality from the raw possession stat is to filter it through a statistic called Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating. The statistic is very easy to compute. Simply take the number of points scored and divide it by the number of possessions used, then multiply by 100.
For example, say the final was 105-96 in the Lakers vs. Magic game. L.A. had 90 possessions and scored 105 points. What is their Offensive Rating? Simply divide 105/90=1.167. Now multiply by 1.167 x 100= 116.7. The Lakers had an offensive efficiency rating of 116.7. The league average for the 08-09 season was 106.6, so we can see that a rating of 116.7 is way above average.
In the above example you might have expected the Lakers score to be low if you simply looked at the raw possession statistic. In this game it was 90, which is well below the league average of 93.1. However, their offensive quality is high, therefore it doesn’t take L.A. as many possessions to score their points.
Defensive Rating works the same way. A teams defensive rating is simply their opponents offensive rating. To calculate L.A.’s defensive rating in this game we take the opponents number of points (96) and divide it by the number of opponent’s possessions (90) and multiply that number by 100. 100(96/90)=106.6. As you can see, L.A.’s defensive rating was 106.6, which was exactly the league average for 08-09. Orlando didn’t neccessarily play bad offense in this game, the L.A. offense was just way better.
As with Possessions, Off/Def Ratings can help you with your daily fantasy roster decisions. For example, last season the L.A. Lakers (94.3) and Sacramento Kings (94.4) played at almost the same pace. If you were trying to choose between fantasy player A playing against L.A. and fantasy player B playing against Sacramento based on raw possessions, it would likely just be a coin flip. However, if you dig a little deeper and move to defensive ratings we find that L.A.’s defensive rating last season was 104.7 while Sacramento’s was 114.7 (remember lower defensive ratings are better, while higher offensive ratings are better). What seemed like a hard decision based strictly on opportunity (possessions) has now become a very easy decision based on quality (defensive rating). While both fantasy players will likely get the same number of opportunities, the fantasy player facing the Kings will likely produce much better results based on those opportunities.
Basically you want to first calculate the number of possessions for a game, then determine the offensive and defensive ratings using the points scored and possessions stat. Once you determine the ratings, you can usually tell how the game was won, either by great defense or great offense. You can also tell which fantasy players may have better nights.
Now that we have defined and discussed some ‘macro’ type stats to begin our analysis of the boxscores, my next posts will describe some of the more ‘micro’ statistics beginning with the statistics known as the ‘Four Factors’.
The Key NBA Handicapping and Fantasy Analysis Statistic: Possessions (8/27/09)
Aug 26, 2009 Picks
Handicapping NBA games and playing fantasy basketball are very closely related and having a good grasp of one definitely improves the other. One of my favorite stats for making my NBA handicapping game picks AND setting my daily fantasy cash game rosters is the ‘possession’. The Possession statistic measures the ‘quantity’ of opportunities that a team gets to score points. All stats flow from this concept.
Possession is defined with the basic formula: Possessions=FGA+TO+(.4 x FTA)-OREB. Sometimes you will see .44 x FTA used but I normally just use .4 to make the math easier and quicker as I review the boxscores. Some also prefer to discount the entire possessions number by multiplying it by .96. I stick with the above formula.
To determine the number of possessions for the entire game, simply do the formula for each team and then add the number of possessions together and divide by 2.
Last season one of the teams with the highest number of possessions per game was Golden State. Plugging in their season numbers you get 7055 FGA + 1201 TO + (.4 x 2392) – 953 OREB = 8355/82 games = ~101 possessions per game. The scores of their games tended to be relatively high.
One of the slowest teams was the Detroit Pistons, who are known for their tough defense. Plugging in their numbers you get 6559 FGA + 973 TO + (.4 x 1849 FTA) – 949 OREB = 7397/82 games = ~89 possessions per game. The scores of their games tended to be relatively low.
If you were considering a totals bet, the possession figures should be the first statistic you look at. Once you understand possessions, you can see why Warriors games usually have higher totals numbers than Pistons games. The real trick is to determine where to put the line when you have a matchup of the Warriors versus the Pistons.
It should also be clear how a knowledge of the possessions statistic can help you with daily fantasy decisions. If you have to choose between two players, one playing against Golden State and one playing against Detroit, the roster decision becomes really easy given the possessions statistic and all the extra opportunities the fantasy player will have with Golden State as the opponent. This becomes really helpful in daily cash game fantasy contests with a salary cap. Many times the two players you are considering may have similar salaries, but the matchups make one player a much better deal than the other.
The possessions statistic is an important one, but sometimes can be misleading since it only measures quantity of opportunity. In the next post of this series I will take a look at qualifying the possessions statistic with the statistic of ‘efficiency’ using Offensive Ratings and Defensive Ratings. While Possessions measure ‘quantity’ of scoring opportunities, Off/Def Ratings measure ‘quality’ of scoring opportunities.
Tags: handicapping
