Keeper League Draft: Moneyball Big Man Strategy (10/24/10)

Saturday morning was the Keeper League draft and I actually had a pretty good draft in this league of experts.  I finally got to use a strategy that I’ve been pondering for awhile and this was a perfect opportunity to see if it could really work.  It was also fun because it’s a totally different strategy and team than my Blogger’s League team.

The Moneyball Big Man Strategy is based on going with a big man system trying to capture the points, FG%, rebounds, steals, blocks and turnover categories.  The reason behind the ‘moneyball’ reference is that all three guard positions use the type of guards that nobody else really wants, so there are always plenty of plug and play options on the wire.    I’m looking for defensive type guards, those that get rebounds, steals, blocks and don’t handle the ball much, therefore keeping their turnovers really low.  Optimally, I’d like them to also be close range shooters with a high percentage.    Contrast this to the guys who build around threes and assists and employ premium draft picks at the three Guard spots, if one of their Guards gets hurt, there are no replacements on the wire.  It’s all about trying to capitalize on the resources that everyone else undervalues or has no use for.

We are allowed three keepers every year in this league, I’ve posted my keepers first.  One helpful fact was that the PG postition was very thin because most keepers were at PG.  Roster positions are PG, SG, G, SF, PF, C, C, U, U, 3 Bench spots.   Nine category H2H, rosters set weekly on Monday.  I had the 7th draft spot in the 12 team league.  So here’s the roster that I ended up with and a little commentary on each pick:

1.   (Keeper) Rudy Gay SF/PF
2.   (Keeper) Jeff Green SF/PF
3.   (Keeper) Zach Randolph PF/C
4.   Amare Stoudemire PF/C
5.   Gerald Wallace SF/PF
6.   Chris Kaman C
7.   Roy Hibbert C
8.   Andre Miller PG
9.   Rodney Stuckey PG/SG
10.  D.J. Augustin PG
11.   Rodrigue Beaubois PG/SG
12.   Arron Afflalo SG
13.   Tayshaun Prince SF/PF

Round 1 – I had Dwight Howard queued up first, but had no real shot at getting him, he went #5.  Amare Stoudemire was the choice.  I’d like a few more rebounds, but his scoring should be huge this season.  Stoudemire and Z. Randolph fill my two center spots.  I’m happy with it.

Round 2Gerald Wallace managed to slip to me and I was thrilled to have him.  Yes, he’s always an injury risk, but I can’t think of any better fit for my system at SF than Wallace.  Great points, rebounds, steals, blocks and FT%/FG%. 

Round 3Chris Kaman was there and I couldn’t pass up his points, rebounds, blocks and percentages.  I’ll now be moving Zach Randolph to PF and pairing Kaman with Stoudemire in my two center spots.  Solid.

Round 4 – This is the first ‘keeper round’.  All the guys selected in the first three rounds have to go back into the draft pool next year.   Any player selected from here on out is eligible to be a keeper for next season.  I didn’t need another center, but Roy Hibbert was still on the board and I couldn’t resist picking him as a keeper for next year.   He fits my system perfectly and I’ll just plug him in one of my two open Utility spots.  Blocks galore and his FT% isn’t horrible at 75.5% last season.

Round 5 – I’m full on big men.  I’ve filled my SF, PF, F, C, C , U and U spots and now it’s time to grab some guards for a weekly rotation based on matchups.  There isn’t much left on the board, but most everyone else went with guards early, so there isn’t much competition left for what’s out there.  That’s the beauty of the ‘Moneyball’ factor.   I grabbed Andre “Ironman” Miller.  He’s solid in points and a pretty decent rebounder from the PG spot with a career 4.1 per game.  He takes good care of the ball and will get 1+ steals a game.  Good enough at this point in the draft.

Round 6Rodney Stuckey.  I wasn’t thrilled with him, but he scores and grabbed 3.9 rebounds a game last season.  He’ll get 1+ steals a game.  His FG% is a little weak, but his 82 FT% helps my big men percentages.

Round 7D.J. Augustin.  This was strictly a pick on a guy who might actually break out with the opportunity he’s been given.  His shooting percentage is horrible, but he should take care of the ball.  Not bad for a third string point guard and maybe even keeper material if he breaks out big this season.

Round 8Rodrigue Beaubois.  How can you not take a flier on Roddy Buckets this late in the draft?  He qualifies at PG and SG.   High risk, high reward.

Round 9Arron Afflalo.  He’s going to get big minutes this season and he has a 4.2 rebound per 36 minute career average.  He also had a sneaky .5 blocks per game last year.

Round 10 – This is the last round and I was simply looking for a SF/PF type for my bench backup.  Tayshaun Prince fit the bill perfectly.  He’ll score, grab some steals and rebounds and take care of the ball.  Dependable.

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