Dec 13, 2011 Blog
Below are the initial 2011-2012 NBA Fantasy Basketball Shooting Guard draft rankings for all 30 teams. I have placed a copy of the rankings under the 2011-2012 Draft Rankings Tab at the top of the homepage for easy access as drafts approach. Check back Wednesday for complete Small Foward rankings.
Tier 1 – The 2011-2012 Fantasy Basketball All-Stars
1 Dwyane Wade (MIA) – Easy choice for the top of the SG board. His game didn’t suffer too much with the arrival of LeBron and Bosh, but it did change a little. Wade saw a decrease in assists to 4.6 APG, down from his career mark of 6.3 APG. He offset the decrease in assists with a career high mark in rebounds with 6.2 RPG, up from his career average of 5.1 RPG. He’s still getting his 25 PPG and also chipping in 1.5 steals and 1.0 blocks per game.
2 Monta Ellis (GSW) – I’m giving Monta the nod over Kobe this year because of the big changes that have hit the Lakers. Monta returns to a familiar fast paced Warriors system where he should continue to log nearly 40 minutes per game as compared to the 33-34 MPG that Kobe will likely get this season. More opportunity equals more fantasy stats. Monta does it all with 2010 stats of 24.1 PPG, 5.6 APG, 2.1 SPG and 4.7 three point attempts per game. His percentages are all satisfactory.
3 Kobe Bryant (LAL) – At 33, Kobe’s age might be starting to catch up with him. He played a career low of 33.9 MPG in 2010 while dealing the numerous nagging injuries. If he’s limited to that number of minutes again, then his fantasy value takes a hit. He also lost Phil Jackson and a system that he was comfortable with. The Lakers just lost Lamar Odom and things don’t seem to be going so well in Lakerland. Having said that, Kobe is still better than just about anyone in the fantasy game at SG and should remain a top 5 SG pick for a couple more years.
Tier 2 – Potential Fantasy All-Star Performers
4 Eric Gordon (LAC) – I’m giving the edge to Gordon over Martin based on the fact that I think at only 23 years old, Gordon has the higher fantasy ceiling. In 2010 Gordon produced 22.3 PPG, 4.4 APG, 1.3 SPG and 5.2 three point attempts per game, hitting 36.4% of them. He should easily hit those marks again, especially if defenses leave him open as they focus on Blake Griffin.
5 Kevin Martin (HOU) – Martin (25.9 PT/36) was second only to Kobe (26.9 PT/36) for points scored per 36 minutes. The guy can flat out score the rock. He’s a huge source of three pointers, launching a career high 5.7 per game in 2010 while hitting 38.3% of them. He provides exactly what you want out of your shooting guard spot.
6 Joe Johnson (ATL) – Johnson is a picture of consistency in fantasy basketball. He doesn’t rule any particular category, but he’s solid value across the board. He posted another good year in 2010 with 18.2 PPG, 4.7 APG, 4.0 RPG and 4.2 3PA per game. The only blemish on his 2010 record was the 29.7% shooting from three point range, but he’s a career 36.6% shooter from there so he should bounce back. Atlanta is also a little weak at PG this season, so Johnson could improve his assist numbers if the Hawks ask him to help run the offense a bit more.
7 Stephen Jackson (MIL) – One thing is for sure, Jackson is going to get his in Milwaukee. 2010 saw him put up 18.5 PPG, 3.6 APG, 1.2 SPG, while launching 5.4 three point attempts per game, hitting 33.7%. Jackson’s biggest drawback is his career shooting percentage of 41.8%. He’s an above average source of rebounds from your SG spot, posting 4.4 RPG last season. He should also have SF eligibility.
Tier 3 – Not Flashy, But Dependable
8 Manu Ginobili (SAS) – The only thing that keeps Manu from being in Tier 2 is his minutes per game. More time on the court equals better fantasy value. The last three seasons he’s only been able to log 26.8, 28.7 and 30.3 MPG. At 34 years old in a compressed 66 game schedule, I don’t see him topping 30.0 MPG this year. When you look at his per/36 numbers, he leads all shooting guards in assists/36 at 5.8 and 3PA/36 at 6.5. He showed he’s still worthy of the number 8 ranking by posting 2010 stats of 17.4 PPG, 4.9 APG, 1.5 SPG, 3.7 RPG and 5.7 three point attempts per game.
9 Marcus Thornton (SAC) – Thornton is a guy who might just work himself into Tier 2. The Kings have committed big money to him over the next four years. After arriving in Sacramento, Thornton went on an absolute tear putting up 20.1 PPG, 3.2 APG, 4.4 RPG and 5.1 3PA over 27 games. I’m not sure that he can maintain that for a whole season, but then again, he might get close. Be ready to grab him if he slips in your draft.
10 Ray Allen (BOS) - If there’s anyone that personifies dependability, it’s Ray Allen. At 36 years old, he hasn’t missed a beat over the last two seasons putting up an average of 16.3 PPG, 2.7 APG, 3.3 RPG and 4.9 3PA. He should duplicate that for at least another year. He’s also a huge help in the percentage categories posting 49.1 FG%, 39.9 3P% and 88.1 FT% in 2010. And he’s only missed 2 games over the last two seasons. Dependability.
11 Jason Richardson (ORL) – Richardson just signed a 4 year deal with Orlando. He’ll turn 31 this season, so he’s still got a lot of basketball left in him. Richardson is a pure scorer putting up 16.0 PPG over the last three seasons, but he’s also a sneaky source of rebounds averaging 4.2 RPG over that same stretch. He possesses the second highest number of three point attempts per 36 minutes of all SG’s with 6.4 3PA in 2010. He’s a career 37.3% shooter from beyond the arc.
12 Jason Terry (DAL) – Jet just continues to put up good numbers even though he usually comes off the bench for the Mavs. His 2010 stats: 15.8 PPG, 4.1 APG, 1.1 SPG, 4.3 3PA. That’s great value that can probably be had in the later middle rounds of most drafts.
13 Jamal Crawford (FA) – Crawford is instant offense, it’s just a question of where he’s going to land this season. If he lands with the Knicks, then he’s going to have some serious value since he might be asked to handle the ball a little more than usual given New York’s weakness at PG. Crawford’s 2010 stats with the Hawks: 14.2 PPG, 3.2 APG, 4.6 3PA.
14 Rip Hamilton (FA) – Hamilton is in the same boat as Crawford, his value will completely depend on where he lands in free agency. Hamilton is a scorer with a 17.7 PPG career average. He’s also a fairly good source of assists from the shooting guard spot averaging 3.5 per game over his career. Check back on his ranking after he signs a contract.
Tier 4 – New Kids With Some Skills
15 DeMar DeRozan (TOR) – DeRozan made huge strides in his sophomore season posting 17.2 PPG, 1.0 SPG, 1.8 APG and 3.8 RPG. The three point shot is still a work in progress, as he took just .6 threes per game, hitting less than 10%. He should be in line to get something similar to the 34.8 MPG he got in 2010. He’s only 22 years old and could greatly improve last season’s stats. Definitely worth the risk, especially in keeper leagues.
16 Wesley Matthews (POR) – Brandon Roy was forced to retire due to his knees, so Matthews should step right in to the starting SG spot and get all the minutes he can handle. Last season he posted 15.9 PPG, 2.0 APG, 1.2 SPG and 3.1 RPG. He’s deadly from three point range taking 4.9 per game and hitting 40.7% of them. Definitely good middle round value with high upside.
17 Nick Young (WAS) – Young finally got a chance to start last season and he made the most of it putting up 17.4 PPG. He’s mainly a scorer and only posted .7 SPG, 1.2 APG and 2.3 RPG. He will get you some threes with 4.2 attempts per game last season, hitting 38.7% If he could just improve his peripheral stats, he’d rank much higher.
18 Aaron Afflalo (FA) – Afflalo should end up back in Denver this year where he’ll be asked to shoulder a great deal of the scoring load since the Nuggets will be without J.R Smith, Wilson Chandler, Kenyon Martin and possibly Nene. Afflalo has a very well rounded game and helps in just about every category. His 2010 stats: 12.6 PPG, 2.4 APG, .5 SPG, 3.9 RPG, 3.8 3PA. He posted excellent percentage of 49.8 FG%, 42.3 3PT% and 84.7 FT%.
19 Landry Fields (NYK) – Fields started for the Knicks as a rookie in 2010 and held his own very well. He offers special value for fantasy owners who are trying to build their team in a certain way. Fields’ biggest strength is his rebounding from the SG position. He grabbed 6.4 RPG in 2010 while scoring 9.7 PPG, 1.0 SPG and putting up 2.7 three pointers, hitting 39.3% of them. He’s a hustle player and should average more than the 31.0 MPG he got last season.
20 Shannon Brown (PHO) – Brown is going to be a huge gamble this year, but I think he fits in well with the other guys in this tier. Phoenix has waived Vince Carter which opens up the starting SG spot for Brown. He’s shown some great athletic ability and some highlight reel dunks, but he’s also got a decent perimeter game as well. His per/36 stats say he could produce something in the neighborhood of 16.0 PPG, 2.2 APG, 1.4 SPG and 3.8 RPG. He’s developing a three point shot and could be asked to launch it 4 times a game from beyond the arc this year.
21 Ben Gordon (DET) – The Pistons have finally waived Rip Hamilton, which opens up the SG spot for Gordon. Whether he does anything with it is anyone’s guess. He’s got high risk, high reward written all over him this year. His game is very similar to Nick Young’s in that he’s basically just a scorer and lacking in most other categories. At nearly 29 years old, there isn’t much ceiling.
22 Gerald Henderson (CHA) – Henderson isn’t a huge talent, but he’s got a starting job all to himself on a team that doesn’t have much other scoring ability. He’s probably going to be asked to jack 12-15 shots a game, but who knows what kind of average he’s going to end up with. His per/36 stats do suggest that he’s a fairly decent rebounder though with a career 4.7 REB/36min mark.
23 Anthony Morrow (NJN) – Morrow has a fairly limited fantasy game as a scorer. He does get decent run though with 32.0 MPG in 2010 where he posted 13.2 PPG, 1.2 APG, .3 SPG and 3.0 RPG. He is a pretty good three point option, as he launched 4.5 per game in 2010, hitting 42.3%. The Nets have a pretty good rookie in Marshon Brooks who might push Morrow for minutes.
Tier 5 – Unknowns
24 Wesley Johnson (MIN) – It was looking like Johnson was the clear starter for the Wolves, but Minnesota just signed J.J. Barea. There might be a position battle brewing here. Still, Johnson wasn’t hugely impressive in his rookie season averaging just 9.0 PPG, 1.9 APG, 3.0 RPG and .7 SPG. He also had a bit of trouble finding his shot with a 39.7 FG%.
25 James Harden/Thabo Sefolosha (OKC) – These two might be in a timeshare again this year, which really hurts the fantasy value of both guys. If Harden can win the starting job, I’ll be moving him up.
26 Mike Miller (MIA) – Miller is always dealing with injuries and is doing so again this season. He wasn’t amnestied and still remains on the Heat roster, but his role isn’t certain.
27 O.J. Mayo – Mayo had a good thing going in Memphis, but it looks like he’s headed to a crowed Indiana Pacer guard rotation where he’ll have to deal with George Hill, Paul George, Darren Collison and A.J. Price. His fantasy value will strictly depend on whether he can get the starting job there.
28 George Hill/Paul George (IND) – The SG spot in Indiana is crowed, and just got more crowed with the addition of O.J. Mayo. Hill and George both have some skills, but ranking them is almost impossible until the positional battle shakes out with a clear winner.
29 Evan Turner/Jodie Meeks (PHI) – Another battle where the winner will move up a good bit in the rankings.
30 Ronnie Brewer/Keith Bogans (CHI) – The Bulls will probably land either Rip Hamilton or Jamal Crawford, so Brewer and Bogans are likely waiver wire material. If for some reason Chicago doesn’t bring someone in, I’ll rerank them.
31 Tracy McGrady (ATL) – He’s living on his past reputation, but could actually have some decent value as a 6th man in Atlanta.
32 Xavier Henry (MEM) – Memphis is going to have to fill the vacancy left by O.J. Mayo and Henry might get first crack at the job. Keep an eye on Grizzlies camp.
Waiver Wire SGs: Marquis Daniels, Manny Harris, J.J. Redick, Randy Foye, Courtney Lee, Rudy Fernandez, Reggie Williams, Xavier Henry, Francisco Garcia, Willie Green, Ramon Sessions