Fantasy Basketball 2010-2011 Team Preview: New Jersey Nets (9/9/10)

The New Jersey Nets were every bit as bad as their 12-70 record would indicate and it doesn’t look much better this season.  There’s definitely a reason that LeBron didn’t choose the Nets.  The Nets will give Devin Harris another shot at running the offense at point guard with Anthony Morrow and Terrence Williams fighting for time at shooting guard.   The Nets overpaid for Travis Outlaw and he should see most of the minutes at small forward.  Troy Murphy will man the power forward spot and Brook Lopez will start at center.  Lopez has the most fantasy value on the club, with Troy Murphy and Devin Harris a distant second and third.    Post your comments over on the Fantasy Basketball Daily Facebook Page.

Projected Depth Chart
PG – Devin Harris, Jordan Farmar
SG – Terrence Williams, Anthony Morrow,
SF – Travis Outlaw, Quinton Ross, Damion James
P – Troy Murphy, Derrick Favors, Kris Humphries
C – Brook Lopez, Johan Petro

2009 Team Stats
Pace:   #24, 91.4 (avg. 92.7)
Offensive Rating:   #30, 100.6 (avg. 107.6)
Defensive Rating:   #25, 110.5 (avg. 107.6)
Team eFG%:   #30, 45.8% (avg. 50.1%)
Offensive Rebounding:   #21, 25.1 (avg. 26.3)
Defensive Rebounding:   #28, 71.8 (avg. 73.7)
Opponent eFG%:   #23, 51.7% (avg. 50.1%)
Points Per Game:   #30, 92.4 (avg. 100.4)


Playing Time and Usage Rates
Usage Rates illustrate a player’s involvement in the team’s offense.
Player (2009 MPG)           Usage (2009/Career)
Harris (34.7)                           25.5/23.3
Farmar (18.0)                         19.0/18.9
Williams (22.6)                       21.8/21.8
Morrow (29.2)                         17.8/17.7
Outlaw (21.5)                         21.4/22.2
Murphy (32.6)                        18.8/18.5
Lopez (36.9)                           23.6/22.1

Harris is going to get first shot at running the offense, but I’m guessing that Farmar is going to work his way into good minutes, which will create a headache of a fantasy platoon.  Anthony Morrow might be able to grab the starting shooting guard spot based on his excellent shooting ability.  Terrence Williams is exciting, but he didn’t show much ability to shoot the basketball.   It’s going to be a very long season for the Nets if Travis Outlaw gets anything close to a usage rate of 23.0.  I expect that Troy Murphy is going to see his usage increase, even with the presence of stud rookie, Derrick Favors.  Brook Lopez should again be the primary option inside on offense.


Shooting Ability and Shot Location
Player         eFG%         3PT Shooting         Jumper/Inside
Harris           47.6          .6/2.0 (30.1%)           66/34
Farmar         51.1          1.0/2.7 (35.9%)         74/26
Williams      42.5          .4/1.3 (31.0%)            63/37
Morrow       56.3          1.7/3.6 (46.0%)           85/15
Outlaw        47.0          .5/1.4 (36.3%)           85/15
Murphy       49.4          .9/2.3 (39.4%)            72/28
Lopez           51.2           0/0                           42/58

Shooting ability is another factor that could make the PG spot in New Jersey more of a platoon than fantasy owners would like.  Farmar is the superior shooter and has a better three point shot.  Morrow is the better option at SG with a 56.3 eFG% compared to the horrible career 42.5% number put up by Terrence Williams.  Travis Outlaw has a career FG% of 44.2 and I’m not sure what the Nets were thinking when they gave him a 5 year, $35 million contract.  He’s improved, but surely they could have spent that money more wisely.  Murphy is a good shooter, but he’s perimeter oriented which leaves a lot of pressure on Brook Lopez as the only interior scoring threat.

Anthony Morrow will be the number one option when the Nets need a three.  He’s hit an incredible 46.0% over his two year career and he could be a huge bonus for anyone planning their team around three point shooting and percentage.  Travis Outlaw has improved his three point shot over the last couple of years and should be able to achieve a 36-38% success rate.  Troy Murphy is another big man who can nail the three with a career percentage of 39.4%.

The Nets ended up with a team full of jumpshooters.  Either this is some Russian secret strategy or a huge error in judgment.  I guess they are counting on Brook Lopez to do it all alone on the interior.  We’ll see.


Rebounding Rates
Player            Off/Def/Total
Harris              1.9/8.9/5.4
Farmar            2.1/9.2/5.7
Williams          2.9/20.6/11.4
Morrow           4.3/10.0/7.1
Outlaw            4.9/14.1/9.5
Murphy            7.7/24.7/16.1
Lopez            10.2/19.2/14.6

The Nets should finish dead last in offensive rebounding this season.  That’s another hidden danger in having a team full of jumpshooters, especially at PF.   Terrence Williams was a surprisingly good rebounder and that talent could earn him some minutes at SF.   Murphy is good on the defensive boards, but weak on the offensive glass.   Brook Lopez is a solid rebounder.


The Nets have a new head coach in Avery Johnson and it’s going to take some time to mold this inexperienced group into a cohesive unit.
PG – Devin Harris is a horrible defensive player and it’s yet another reason why Jordan Farmar could make a claim to the PG spot for the Nets.
SG – Terrence Williams is a good defensive player and considering his 42.5 eFG%, it’s obvious that his defense and rebounding was what kept him on the court in 2009.  Morrow comes to the Nets from the Warriors, where they just don’t play defense.
SF – Travis Outlaw is average at best on defense.
PF – Murphy is adequate on defense and he can get out and guard the perimeter.
C – Lopez is going to be a good defender.   He definitely had a full season of practice trying to defend the rim as his teammates continuously lost their man.

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