Fantasy Basketball 2010-2011 Team Preview: Orlando Magic (9/16/10)

The Magic didn’t make any big moves this offseason and the usual dependable fantasy options remain in place for the 2010-2011 season.  Jameer Nelson will start at point guard, but he’s going to be pushed a bit by Chris Duhon.  Duhon is a good facilitator and can effectively run the offense.  Vince Carter will start at shooting guard, but J. J. Redick is making a bid for more playing time and Carter isn’t getting any younger.  There is a battle at small forward between Quentin Richardson and Mickael Pietrus, which will probably turn into a platoon with neither player being very attractive.  Rashard Lewis will get the starting power forward spot and Dwight Howard will run the show at center.  Brandon Bass and Marcin Gortat are the big men off the bench.  Below are the relevant stats used to figure out the best options at each position for the Magic.  Comments are welcome on the Fantasy Basketball Daily Facebook Page.

Projected Fantasy Depth Chart
PG:  Jameer Nelson, Chris Duhon
SG:  Vince Carter, J. J. Redick
SF:  Mickael Pietrus, Quentin Richardson
PF:  Rashard Lewis, Brandon Bass
C:  Dwight Howard, Marcin Gortat

2009 Team Stats
Pace:   #18, 92.0 (avg. 92.7)
Offensive Rating:   #4, 111.4 (107.6)
Defensive Rating:  #3, 103.3 (107.6)
Team eFG%:   #2, 53.6 (avg. 50.1)
Offensive Rebounding:   #25, 24.6 (avg. 26.3)
Defensive Rebounding:  #1, 77.4 (73.7)
Opponent’s eFG%:   #1, 47.7 (avg. 50.1)
Points Per Game:   #6, 102.8 (avg. 100.4)

Playing Time and Usage Rates
Player (2009 MPG)          Usage (2009/Career)
Nelson (28.6)                       22.3/22.3
Duhon (30.9)                        13.1/14.1
Carter (30.8)                        25.2/29.4
Redick (22.0)                       18.3/18.0
Richardson (27.4)                 14.8/19.7
Pietrus (22.5)                       18.0/18.6
Lewis (32.9)                        19.4/21.7
Howard (34.7)                     23.9/22.6

Starting up top with the point guard spot, Nelson is clearly a bigger part of the Magic offense than Duhon could ever hope to be.  Duhon has a below average career usage rate and I wouldn’t expect that to suddenly spike with a move to Orlando.  Carter should see his usage decline while Redick sees his creep up a little.  Probably not huge changes though for either player.  On a career usage rate, Richardson and Pietrus are fairly equal and will be interchangeable on the offensive side of the ball.  Rashard Lewis is on the decline, as he is on the court more for his defense and three point shooting this late in his career.  It’s surprising that Dwight Howard doesn’t have a higher usage rate given his immense talent.  Maybe this is the year he decides to improve his offensive game.


Shooting Ability and Shot Location
Player      Career eFG%         Career 3PT           Jumper/Inside
Nelson          51.2                 1.0/2.7 (38.7%)          72/28
Duhon           48.5                 1.2/3.4 (36.2%)          77/23
Carter           48.6                 1.5/4.1 (37.5%)           74/26
Redick          52.3                 1.0/2.7 (39.2%)            84/16
Richardson    47.9                  1.6/4.5 (35.9%)          80/20
Pietrus         51.8                  1.2/3.3 (35.9%)          81/19
Lewis            52.7                 1.9/4.9 (39.2%)           83/17
Howard       57.5                           0/0                     13/87

One of these things is not like the others.  Not much to say on shooting for the Magic other than it’s a team of jumpshooters and Dwight Howard on the inside.  Everyone can hit the three at a respectable rate.  While an opposing team may have a single, or even two, perimeter defenders they still can’t guard the Magic from the outside and someone is usually open.  This is magnified even more if the oppostion chooses to double team Dwight Howard.  Either way, the Magic will find the weak spot and exploit it.


Player            Off/Def/Total
Nelson            2.4/10.2/6.4
Duhon             1.5/8.7/5.1
Carter             4.6/12.1/8.3
Redick            1.1/8.9/5.1
Richardson     5.3/14.9/10.1
Pietrus            4.6/12.1/8.3
Lewis             5.1/14.0/9.6
Howard          12.1/28.9/20.7

The Magic were the number one ranked defensive rebounding team in the NBA last season, mostly thanks to Dwight Howard.  There are some other good rebounders on this team though.  Jameer Nelson has a good defensive rebounding number for a point guard and Quentin Richardson puts up a decent number from the small forward spot.  Lewis is a little weak for a power forward, but he isn’t totally outmanned.  The Magic should dominate the defensive boards again in 2010.


Orlando had the number three ranked defense in the NBA last season and had the top ranking for opponent’s eFG% allowed, with a 47.7 eFG%.
PG:  Jameer Nelson is an average defender.  Chris Duhon is below average, even on the Knicks last season.
SG:  Vince Carter is losing some quickness, but he still played surprisingly good defense in 2009.  J.J. Redick brings high energy and can hold his own on the defensive end.
SF:  Mickael Pietrus is an excellent defender and it is a big reason for him being in contention for the starting SF spot.  Quentin Richardson has been a good defensive player over his career, but last season he was pretty terrible.
PF:  Rashard Lewis is an above average defender and Brandon Bass can bang with the biggest guys in the league.
C:  Dwight Howard.  No explanation necessary.

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