Fantasy Basketball Team Preview: Chicago Bulls (9/2/10)
Sep 2, 2010 Blog
Each NBA team has certain characteristics which can affect the fantasy value of their individual players and during the month of September I’m going to post notes on each team with some things that you should consider when evaluating and ranking your 2010-2011 fantasy players. I’m starting in no particular order with the Chicago Bulls.
Projected Depth Chart:
PG – Derrick Rose, C.J. Watson
SG – Ronnie Brewer, Kyle Korver, Keith Bogans
SF – Luol Deng, James Johnson
PF – Carlos Boozer, Taj Gibson
C – Joakim Noah, Kurt Thomas, Omer Asik
Coach – Thom Thibodeau
Team Stats:
Pace – #12, 93.1
Offensive Rating – #27, 103.5
Defensive Rating – #11, 105.3
Team eFG% – #28, 47.7%
Points per game – #18, 99.1
Usage Rates
Usage rate is a stat that describes which players are the focal point of a team’s offense. I have listed 2009 stats with career stats in parentheses:
Rose – 27.2 (24.8)
Brewer – 13.9 (17.0)
Deng – 21.9 (21.8)
Boozer – 24.8 (23.6)
Noah – 17.1 (15.0)
Korver – 16.2 (17.5)
Gibson – 16.7 (16.7)
Watson – 16.0 (16.3)
The first thing to notice is that the 2009 figures for the starters totalled about 105, so somebody is going to have to decrease their usage, and it’s probably going to be Derrick Rose. Rose’s 27.2 usage rate was created by the Bulls weakness at power forward and the injury time missed by Noah at Center. With Boozer now at PF, the Bulls usage numbers should decrease at PG and increase at PF. The other loser is going to be Taj Gibson. If you have read my PG rankings, you know that I have Rose ranked pretty high, but I think I’m going to have to adjust that downward soon.
Defense
The Bulls were actually a pretty good defensive team in 2009, ranking at #11 in the league. They should improve on that number with the arrival of new head coach and defensive wiz, Thom Thibodeau. He was the mastermind behind the excellent Celtic defense and he could do the same with the Bulls. The weak links on defense are going to be Derrick Rose and Carlos Boozer. Rose’s defense is below average and he has problems guarding quicker guards. He’s young, so maybe he can improve this season. Carlos Boozer isn’t a horrible defensive player, he’s just lazy. Luckily for both, the Bulls have defensive ace Joakim Noah to defend the rim when someone loses their man. Deng should continue to be an average defender. Ronnie Brewer should be an upgrade at SG, and at 6′ 7-220 he’ll be able to guard some of the better opposing SG’s. He’s also excellent in the steals category with 1.6 a game.
Rebounding
Player Off/Def/Total Rebounding Rates:
Rose 3.1/8.5/5.9
Brewer 4.8/8.4/6.6
Deng 5.9/15.6/10.8
Boozer 9.7/26.9/18.3
Noah 13.3/22.7/18.0
Team 26.1/74.8
Noah and Boozer are the two best rebounders, as expected. Boozer seems to be the better defensive rebounder, while Noah excels on the offensive boards. Playing alongside Noah, Boozer could possibly see a small reduction in his rebounding stat this season. The Bulls as a team were 16th in the league in offensive rebounding and 7th in the league in defensive rebounding.
Jumper/Inside Stats:
Rose – 68/32
Brewer – 47/53
Korver – 92/8
Deng – 69/31
Boozer – 49/51
Noah – 24/76
These stats tell you where and how each player likes to score. The first thing that jumps out is the difference in style between the two shooting guard options, Brewer and Korver. Brewer likes to take it inside, while Korver is strictly a spot up jumpshooter. Rose’s assists will likely be affected by which SG gets the most minutes. Deng and Rose are balanced, while Noah is strictly an inside offensive player. Boozer can hit the jumper pretty well also.
Shooting Ability (career eFG%)
Rose – 48.9
Brewer – 53.1
Korver – 54.0
Deng – 48.3
Boozer – 54.1
Noah – 51.3
Chicago was 28th in the league in shooting in 2009 with a team eFG% of just 47.7. They should improve this season by bringing in Korver, Brewer and Boozer, all of which are over 53%. This should help Rose’s assist numbers. Supposedly, Rose has been working on his 3 point shot, but I’m not counting on much improvement from him. I think Deng will also produce something around his 2009 figure, maybe a little lower if the Bulls decide to have him shoot more threes.
Tags: Chicago Bulls, fantasy basketball