Jul 30, 2010 Blog
2010-2011 NBA Fantasy Basketball Point Guard Draft Rankings
I will be updating and refining these rankings throughout the offseason as news develops, so check back often for player movement and draft position. Please see FBD Fantasy Points Scoring and Ranking System for a clear explanation of a player’s FPS ranking score. The latest updated rankings for each position can be accessed through the “2010-2011 Draft Rankings” tab at the top of the FantasyBasketballDaily.com homepage.
Deron Williams (32.9 FPS, 51.5 eFG%, 80.1 FT%, 37 MPG)
2009: 18.7pts/10.5ast /4.0reb/1.3stl/.2blk/3.3tov
It’s a tough choice at the top of the PG board, but I’m going with Deron Williams. He took 3.4 threes per game last season, hitting 37%. His free throw rate was exceptional at 39.7, showing that he isn’t just a set jumpshooter and will attack when he gets the chance, even through contact. His Jumper/Inside game breaks down to 69%/31%. Probably the biggest knock on him this season is the loss of his pick and roll partner, Carlos Boozer. Al Jefferson will try to fill the hole, but it is going to take some time to mesh with Williams, which may cause Williams’ turnovers to creep up a little from last year’s 3.3 a game.
Chris Paul (35.5 FPS, 53.4 eFG%, 84.7 FT%, 38 MPG)
Based strictly on the numbers, Paul was better than Williams last season, however this year Paul is unhappy and has recently requested a trade. Paul also had some injury problems last season that cost him a good bit of time. He could coast this season looking forward to his free agency jackpot in 2012. If he gets moved to another team, I’ll probably move him to the top spot. He took 2.8 threes a game, hitting 41%. Paul’s game is more perimeter oriented when compared to Williams, as evidenced by Paul’s Jumper/Inside stats of 80%/20%. Paul also had a lower free throw rate of 29.8 which implies that his game is more non-contact jumpshooting than Deron’s. He is better at creating his own shot though. I don’t think you can go wrong with Williams or Paul.
Rajon Rondo (29.7 FPS, 51.7 eFG%, 62.1 FT%, 37 MPG)
Rondo is a much different player than the top two on the rankings and his final draft spot will probably depend a lot on whether you are in a H2H or Rotisserie league. I placed him this high on the list due to his consistency and his ability to produce in several different categories on any given night. Rondo isn’t the scorer that the guys above him are, but he brings it every night and is a better rebounder and plays better defense with good steals. Rondo has worked hard on his shooting, raising his effective field goal percentage (eFG%) to 51.7%, but his free throw shooting percentage of 62.1% is a still a killer for fantasy owners. Rondo realizes his shooting limitations and has molded his Jumper/Inside figure to 48%/52% to reflect his better inside game. He carries a 31.2 free throw rate which gets many attempts for your team at 62.1%. An improvement in FT shooting would greatly help Rondo’s overall game. If you want to build your team around scoring look elsewhere, but if you want to build your team around rebounding, assists and steals, Rondo could be your man.
Stephen Curry (29.0 FPS, 53.5 eFG%, 88.5 FT%, 36 MPG)
Curry had a great rookie campaign, however his stat line is a little misleading because in many of those games Golden State barely had enough players to field a team. Curry and Ellis were asked to carry the team every night, and their stats reflect this situation. The real question for Curry is can he keep this production up now that Golden State has a better team around him? Golden State has improved their team by bringing in a low post presence in David Lee. It remains to be seen how much offense Lee will take away from Curry and Monta Ellis. Curry is an excellent shooter with a eFG% of 53.5%, boosted mainly by his three point shooting where he took 4.8 attempts per game, hitting 44%. I could definitely see moving Curry up as the season approaches.
Derrick Rose (30.0 FPS, 49.5 eFG%, 76.6 FT%, 37 MPG)
This is probably a stretch, but I’m going with Derrick Rose here and hoping that he is finally healthy and ready to breakout in his third year on a good Bulls team. He could move down depending on how things go in camp with Boozer. Rose is more of a scorer with a Jumper/Inside breakdown of 68%/32% and a free throw rate of 24.6. He isn’t very good with the three ball, taking only .8 attempts last season at a 27% success rate, but he’s been working on it this offseason and likes the results. He would be deadly if he could just get his three point rate somewhere around 35%. I think the thing that propels him this high is the arrival of Carlos Boozer. Deron Williams and Boozer ran the pick and roll pretty well and I think Rose can have similar success which should boost his assists and scoring to something around 23 and 8. Rose doesn’t hurt you in the shooting percentage categories, but he is a little weak in the steals category. He’s an average rebounder for a PG.
Steve Nash (28.4 FPS, 57.0 eFG%, 93.8 FT%, 33 MPG)
I put Nash this high on the list based purely on his past production. He’s 36 and I don’t know when his downhill slide is going to begin. Losing Amare Stoudemire this season could hasten that decline as defenses may concentrate more on shutting Nash’s perimeter game down. His shooting skills are at the top of the chart and his assists can carry a team. His weaknesses are a lack of steals and a high turnover rate. He took 3.9 threes per game, hitting 43%. He has a Jumper/Inside rating of 84%/16%, which pretty well describes his perimeter offensive game. He is getting only about 33 minutes per game, mainly due to the emergence of Goran Dragic. Nash could see his MPG dip under 30 this year to keep him fresh for the playoffs.
Russell Westbrook (29.1 FPS, 42.8 eFG%, 78.0 FT%, 35 MPG)
Westbrook improved a great deal last season and should continue to get better at only 22 years old. He isn’t a great shooter as evidenced by his 42.8 eFG%. He does realize his shooting limitations and has distributed his Jumpers/Inside shots to a 60%/40% level. He limited his three point shooting to only 1.3 attempts per game, hitting 22%. He is good at getting to the line with a 36.4 free throw rate and once there he’s an average shooter at 78%. Westbrook is a surprisingly good rebounder and decent in the steals category. He does hurt you a little in the turnovers category, but you can’t complain too much when he still carries a 2.42 assist to turnover ratio. Westbrook slots higher than Curry and Evans strictly on his experience and consistency in a stable team situation.
Tyreke Evans (32.0 FPS, 47.3 eFG%, 74.8 FT%, 37 MPG)
Evans should probably be higher, but I think he suffers from the same thing as Curry – last season he was basically the only thing going in Sacramento. He jacked up 16 shots a game because the rest of the team was a mess. The Kings have added Samuel Dalembert and DeMarcus Cousins to their collection of bigs, which already includes Carl Landry and Jason Thompson. I could see the offense flowing more inside this season for the Kings. Beno Udrih might run the point with Evans at SG, which may hurt Evans’ assist numbers. Evans is also a driver, which might not be such a great thing with all those big bodies now down low. Evans Jumper/Inside game breaks down to 47%/53%. His free throw rate is high at 39.9, but he’s a little below aveage once he gets to the line, making only 74.8%. He doesn’t have much of a three point shot, taking only 2.0 per game last year, hitting just 25%. Evans is a high risk, high reward player, but given how things could form in Sacramento, he might move up the rankings as the season approaches.
Gilbert Arenas (33.5 FPS, 46.2 eFG%, 73.9 FT%, 37 MPG)
The fate of many fantasy teams will ride with Arenas, are you a gambler? Arenas was one of the top PG’s before his gun incident and it looked as though he was finally healthy. At least he’s had plenty more time to rest those knees. Arenas still had his three point shot working with 5.7 attempts a game, hitting 35%. His game was more perimeter oriented than it used to be with his Jumper/Inside rating sitting at 79%/21% last year. Another factor that drops him down the list is the arrival of John Wall and Kirk Hinrich. Arenas played 37 minutes a game last season, but he might not reach that level of opportunity with Wall around. Wall is the future and it has yet to be seen how he is going to play on the floor along side Arenas. Pay attention to this situaton as draft day approaches and adjust the rankings accordingly.
Chauncey Billups (28.2 FPS, 49.9 eFG%, 91.0 FT%, 34 MPG)
Billups’ true value is his veteran consistency and you pretty much know what to expect from him every year. Not a bad point guard to take in middle rounds if you would rather draft big men with your early picks. Billups is an excellent shooter and absolute gold at the free throw line. His biggest strength and possibly most help for fantasy teams is his free throw shooting. Billups has an incredible 53.2 free throw rate and he hits them at 91% when he gets to the line. Last season, nearly a third of his scoring total came from his 6.4 free throws made per game. If your league counts free throws made and free throw percentage, Billups should get a few bonus points in the rankings.
Jason Kidd (27.0 FPS, 55.4 eFG%, 80.8 FT%, 36 MPG)
Kidd is going to be 37 this season and I’m looking for his minutes to decrease. Dallas has Rodrigue Beaubois and I’ve seen talk of him getting more minutes, maybe even starting. Kidd’s primary weakness is his lack of scoring at barely double digits. He can hit the three ball though, taking 5.2 per game last season and hitting 43% of them. Kidd is still valuable, especially if you are in a H2H league. His 2009 stat line and game actually resemble Rajon Rondo’s. If you want good rebounds, assists, threes and steals with low turnovers from your PG, Kidd still has it. Just be sure to pad your scoring category with someone else to overcome Kidd’s deficiency.
Baron Davis (28.6 FPS, 44.6 eFG%, 82.1 FT%, 34 MPG)
I’d like Baron Davis a lot more if he could just say no to the three point shot. Hopefully, he is working on his addiction, as his three point attempts per game have declined from 6.4 in 2007 to 5.0 in 2008 to ‘only’ 3.9 last season. His career average from three point land is 32%, but last year he could only manage 28%. Davis isn’t a bad player, he’s just an inconsistent one, whether it be caused by his attitude or his declining skills. He still a solid player, just be careful of his shooting percentages.
Mo Williams (23.8 FPS, 53.5 eFG%, 89.4 FT%, 34 MPG)
The real question with Williams is how his game will evolve now that LeBron James has left town. I think his stats should improve, especially his assists. The Cavs are going to have to play as a team now and that requires a capable PG running the show and not a King at SF. Williams can hold his own in the shooting department with a 53.5 eFG% while shooting 89.4% from the free throw line. He took 5.4 threes per game last season, hitting 43%, comparable to his career three point percentage of 40%. Williams is purely a perimeter player and has a Jumper/Inside profile of 88% jumpers and 12% inside shots. As you would expect with this profile, he doesn’t get to the line very much with only a 23.2 free throw rate. Williams will probably move up the rankings depending on what the Cavs put around him. I do hear they are considering an uptempo offense, which should help Williams. And he’s from Alabama, so I have to cheer for a fellow alumni.
Aaron Brooks (27.7 FPS, 51.1 eFG%, 82.2 FT%, 36 MPG)
Aaron Brooks had a great year and looks to be a solid starter for Houston. Scoring is Brooks’ best category and you have to wonder how that is going to be affected this year by the return of Yao Ming, a healthy Kevin Martin and a very competent backup in Kyle Lowery. I’m not sure Houston will lean on Brooks as much this year for scoring. If last year’s 19.6 points a game drops to somewhere around 15, his FPS score would take a big hit, as the rest of his stats are pretty average with only 2.6 rebounds and .8 steals per game. His shooting averages are excellent and a big help to his rotisserie value.
Brandon Jennings (25.2 FPS, 43.1 eFG%, 81.7 FT%, 33 MPG)
Brandon Jennings has an odd game. He is an excellent shooter from the perimeter, taking 4.7 threes per game and hitting 37%, but the rest of his shooting game is horrible with only a 37% overall field goal percentage. If you can hit 37% from three point land, then you should really be able to shoot lights out from close in, right? Well, it doesn’t seem to work that way with Jennings. Last season it took him 15 shots a game to get his 15 points a game. He has a Jumper/Inside split of 76%/24%, so at least he realizes where his strengths are. He also doesn’t get to the free throw line, with a free throw rate of only 22.5. He only managed to make 2.7 free throws a game last year. His steals of 1.3 per game were nothing special and his 3.4 rebounds per game were pretty average as well. If you look at his game log from last season, he had some big nights like his 55 point game against a defenseless Golden State team (where he hit 7 of 8 from three), but he also littered the game log with many nights where he only put up 5 or 6 points. While he can have some big nights, Jennings might be more of a one trick pony than a lot of people think.
Darren Collison (22.1 FPS, 50.6 eFG%, 85.1 FT%, 28 MPG)
Collison hit the jackpot with a trade to Indiana which enables him to get out of Chris Paul’s shadow. Collison will immediately start for the Pacers and should make a nice PG pick. He’s a good shooter (50.6 eFG% and 85.1 FT%) and he showed skill in finding his teammates on the floor for good assist totals. He shot 40.0 percent from three, but the sample size was only 1.5 attempts per game. He’s got a Jumper/Inside split of 64/36, so he’s got an inside game to go with a nice jumper. His turnovers are going to be a fantasy problem, but that is unavoidable as he learns the game. I could move Collison depending on how he looks in camp.
Raymond Felton (22.8 FPS, 49.4 eFG%, 76.3 FT%, 33 MPG)
Raymond Felton is a pretty average basketball player, but thankfully he got traded to a system in New York that could make him well above average. Working with Amare Stoudemire should help as well. Felton is a solid shooter with a 49.4 eFG%. He can hit the three, attempting 2.0 per game and hitting 39% of them. He runs the offense capably, posting 5.6 assists last season while holding his turnovers to only 2.1 per game. He plays good defense and can get some steals and his rebounding won’t kill you. See what kind of role D’Antoni plans for him and adjust his ranking accordingly.
John Wall (Rookie) - Honestly, I have no idea where to put John Wall this early in the summer. I’m going to stick him here and come back to this one when training camp starts. The main things to see about Wall are how many minutes he is going to get and who he is going to share the court with. I think he has the skills to be this year’s Tyreke Evans or Stephen Curry.
Andre Miller (22.9 FPS, 45.4 eFG%, 82.1 FT%, 31 PG)
Now we are starting to work our way down to the players who score in the lower 20′s in the FPS rankings. Miller is your average wily veteran who doesn’t do anything flashy, but is solid across the board. He doesn’t hit the three ball, taking only 1 per game and hitting 20%. His eFG% is low at 45.4%, but his free throw shooting is excellent at 82.1%. Much like Chauncey Billups, Miller seems to get to the free throw line more than average. He posted a 43.2 free throw rate last year, scoring 3.9 of his 14 points per game from the line. Not much upside with Miller, but there isn’t much downside either.
Tony Parker (22.6 FPS, 49.4 eFG%, 75.6 FT%, 31 MPG)
The biggest problem with Parker is his ability to stay healthy. He only managed 31 minutes per game last season, which was only about 2 minutes less than his career average. Parker has evolved into a two category player, points and assists, which comprise 86% of his FPS score. His averages of 2.6 rebounds, .5 steals and 2.7 turnovers are not good. His free throw shooting percentage is also weak at 75.6% last season.
Devin Harris (26.7 FPS, 43.7 eFG%, 79.8 FT%, 35 MPG)
It looks like Harris is staying put in New Jersey, but he shouldn’t get too comfortable. Even on a poor team desperate for someone to step up on offense, Harris just couldn’t do the job. If Harris doesn’t pick it up this season, he could lose his starting spot. Hopefully, the new Nets regime will better utilize his skillset. Harris needs the ball driving to the basket. He doesn’t have a jumpshot, and much like Baron Davis, he really needs to just say no to the three point shot. He jacked up 3.4 a game last season, hitting just 28%. His game is driving and contact. Harris posted a 43.7 free throw rate and scored 4.8 of his 16.9 points from the free throw line. There is upside with Harris, but there is also the real chance of a big downside.
Rodney Stuckey (26.2 FPS, 41.3 eFG%, 83.3 FT%, 34 MPG)
Stuckey just isn’t a very good outside shooter and his assist numbers are low for a PG. If he were either a better shooter or a better playmaker, his value would be greater. He’s probably a better shooting guard than he is point guard. Stuckey doesn’t have a three point shot, only taking 1.1 per game, hitting just 23%. He drives to create his shot and has crafted a Jumper/Inside split of 64%/36%. It should probably move toward a 50%/50% split to fully utilize his skills. He does a decent job of getting to the line with a 32.4 free throw rate and he capitalizes once he gets to the line hitting 83.3%. His only competition for minutes at the PG spot is likely Will Bynum, so he should get full opportunity to put up something close to last season’s stats.
Jrue Holiday (14.9 FPS, 50.2 eFG%, 75.6 FT%, 24 MPG)
Holiday was a big surprise last year and the question is whether he can do it for a full season with a new coach and rookie Evan Turner working beside him. Remember these stats are only for 24 minutes a game, which is about a third less than the guys above him. Holiday is a good shooter with a 50.2 eFG% and a 75.6 FT%. He didn’t show much ability to get to the line with only a 16.5 free throw rate. He has a decent three point shot attempting 2.2 per game, hitting 39%. He’s due for a big jump in playing time, so check out what the 76′ers are going to give him as the season approaches.
Jameer Nelson (20.3 FPS, 51.0 eFG%, 84.5 FT%, 29 MPG)
I’m giving Nelson a free pass for last season’s poor showing. Maybe the shoulder injury was the cause, maybe not. He’s a better player than that line would suggest. He’s a good three point shooter taking 3.5 a game and hitting 38%. He’s weak in the steals and rebounds categories and you would think he could average better than 5.4 assists on an Orlando team that is loaded with shooters. Durability is a concern here with Nelson averaging only 28 minutes a game over his career. I’m going to reserve the right to move Nelson as the season approaches depending on his health and role.
Mike Conley (20.8 FPS, 49.4 eFG%, 74.3 FT%, 32 MPG)
Memphis isn’t too happy with Conley and you probably shouldn’t be too happy to have him on your fantasy team either. The Grizz having been experimenting with moving O.J. Mayo to point guard and if you remember, they tried last season to replace Conley with Allen Iverson. Conley does just enough to keep his job. He can hit the three, taking 2.7 per game, hitting 39%. He can get you some steals and about 5 assists per game while barely getting double digit scoring. Jason Kidd can get away with low scoring, Conley can’t.
I’ve considered several other PG’s for the rankings and I’ll be writing them up once their playing situations become a little more clear. If you don’t see a player here, he’s probably going to be included on the Shooting Guard list:
T. J. Ford, Rodrigue Beaubois, Steve Blake, Jose Calderon, Jarrett Jack, Kyle Lowery, Jonny Flynn, George Hill, Derek Fisher, Mike Bibby, Luke Ridnour, Jeff Teague, Darren Collison, Toney Douglas, Ty Lawson, Jerryd Bayless, Shannon Brown, Jason Williams, Chris Duhon, Earl Watson, Beno Udrih, Will Bynum, Shaun Livingston, Ramon Sessions, Mario Chalmers, Carlos Arroyo, C. J. Watson, Goran Dragic, Jordan Farmar, Lance Stephenson, D.J. Augustin.