Aug 29, 2010 Blog
2010-2011 NBA Fantasy Basketball Power Forward Draft Rankings
Rankings for the Power Forward position using our FPS Ranking System will be updated throughout the offseason. Updated rankings can always be found under the 2010-2011 Rankings Tab on the Fantasy Basketball Daily Homepage.
Dirk Nowitzki (37.4 FPS, 49.8 eFG%, 91.5 FT%, 38 MPG)
Nowitzki gets the top spot on the PF board this year because of his consistent production, dependability and scoring ability. The guy has only missed 31 games in the last 11 seasons. He’s excellent from the field (49.8 eFG%) and the line (91.5 FT%). Dirk’s Jumper/Inside split is 83%/17%, which is very perimeter oriented for a 7 foot power forward. Even with his perimeter game, he still managed to grab 7.7 rebounds and block 1.0 shots a game. He has a free throw rate of 39.2, which was good for 586 trips to the line where he converted 91.5%. His three point shooting took a big dip lastyear to only 121 attempts, which was a career low, however he still managed to hit them at a 42% rate. Dallas should be able to make a good run this season and Dirk should lead the way.
Amare Stoudemire (33.6 FPS, 55.7 eFG%, 77.1 FT%, 35 MPG)
Stoudemire has a huge upside in New York this season which justifies ranking him number two. He bounced back nicely from the 20o8 eye injury and was able to play all 82 games last season. If David Lee can produce huge stats in New York, then Amare should be able to exceed that production since the team really hasn’t changed that much. The question to watch in camp is how much Stoudemire will miss Steve Nash and how he will mesh with Raymond Felton. Stoudemire has a Jumper/Inside split of 51%/49% which is a good bit different than Nowitzki’s perimeter game. He gets to the line with a 50.0 free throw rate which allowed him to take 632 free throws last year, hitting 77.1%. He is also a huge help in the FG% category putting up a 55.7 FG% on 1264 shots. Amare had a Usage rate of 27.3 in Phoenix and I expect that he will exceed that number in New York.
David Lee (36.2 FPS, 54.5 eFG%, 81.2 FT%, 37 MPG)
I’m probably going to catch a lot of heat for ranking Lee this high, but I think he could have a monster year with Golden State. The Warriors run at the highest pace in the league and Lee has shown that he can play that kind of game. The only problem that he may encounter is that on some nights much of the scoring will come from Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry, depending on what kind of defense the Warriors are facing. Lee is an excellent rebounder and should again be able to exceed 11.0 rebounds a game, especially given the opportunities provided by the fast pace of a Warriors game. The Warriors were dead last in both defensive and offensive rebounding rate, so Lee doesn’t have much competition for rebounds and he should improve the Warriors in that category. He could be a good player to pad the rebounds column if you are leaning toward building your fantasy team around that category. He’s also a good passer, picking up 3.6 assists per game last year, but he doesn’t give you many blocked shots, swatting only .5 a game in 2009. Scoring shouldn’t be a problem since Stephen Curry can get him the ball plenty. He’s not much of an injury risk, missing only 9 games in the last two seasons.
Pau Gasol (35.4 FPS, 53.6 eF%, 79.0 FT%, 37 MPG)
The knock on Gasol is his injury risk. He missed 17 games in 2009, 16 games in 2007 and 23 games in 2006. If he can stay healthy, then he should be worthy of the number four spot in the rankings. Gasol had a career year rebounding in 2009, but I expect that is largely due to the injury to Andrew Bynum, so that number will come down if Bynum returns healthy this season. He’s a good passer for a big man and put up 3.4 assists last year. His Jumper/Inside split is 39%/61% and he doesn’t shoot the three. Playing almost exclusively inside, he is a good source of blocks with 1.7 per game. He has a free throw rate of 42.9 which got him to the line 362 times, where he converted 79.0%. I expect that Gasol will put up a similar line in 2010, minus a couple of rebounds.
Chris Bosh (38.0 FPS, 52.2 eFG%, 79.7 FT%, 36 MPG)
I’m not sure exactly what to expect from Chris Bosh this season, but I think he could have a good year. He should be able to grab a ton of rebounds since Miami is a little thin at Center, much like the Raptors were with the weak rebounding Bargnani. His scoring could dip from the 24.0 per game he put up last season and he’ll also probably see a decline from last season’s 28.7 Usage rate. He’s a decent shotblocker with 1.0 per game. He has a Jumper/Inside split of 54%/46% and draws a lot of contact, producing a free throw rate of 50.9, which got him to the line 590 times where he converted at a 79.7% rate. Bosh is a guy that should be watched closely in the preseason to determine exactly what his role is going to be.
Carlos Boozer (34.4 FPS, 56.2 eFG%, 74.2 FT%, 34 MPG)
UPDATE: Broken Hand, out 6-8 weeks.
Boozer’s problem has never been talent, but rather poor attitude and motivation. I think he has finally found a place where he will be happier, which should allow him to bring his A game every night. Boozer is an excellent shooter with a 54.1% career FG%. He’s also a good defensive player which should keep him in the good graces of defensive minded new head coach Tom Thibodeau. Boozer has a Jumper/Inside split of 49%/51% and a free throw rate of 35.0. He doesn’t block many shots (.5 per game) but he can help you in the steals category (1.1 per game). He doesn’t shoot the three ball and his free throw percentage is a little weak at 74.2%. He’s a good passer and managed 3.2 assists last season in Utah. He should work very well on the pick and roll with Derrick Rose.
Josh Smith (33.6 FPS, 50.5 eFG%, 61.8 FT%, 36 MPG)
Josh Smith fills the stat sheet almost every night. He is one of the rare players that excels in steals (1.6 per game) and blocks (2.1 per game), while still maintaining good scoring (15.7 per game), rebounding (8.7 per game) and assists (4.2 per game). The guy can do it all. The biggest adjustment to Smith’s game in the last couple of years was that he just quit shooting the long range jumpers and decided to start taking it to the basket. He produced a Jumper/Inside split of 36%/64%, which increased his FG% to 50.5%, well above the low 40′s he was shooting prior to making the change. The only weakness in Smith’s game is his 66.8% career free throw shooting which can hurt a little since he has a high free throw rate of 42.2, which got him 422 attempts last year. He’s a great defensive player. Smith is only 25 years old and has matured a lot over the last couple of seasons. He returns to a Hawks team that is almost identical to last season and he should be able to put up a minimum of last season’s line, with the possibility of even better numbers.
Tim Duncan (33.6 FPS, 51.9 eFG%, 72.5 FT%, 31 MPG)
It hurts me to rank Duncan this low, but at 34 years old, age may finally be catching up to him. He played a career low 31.3 minutes a game last year, but still put up good numbers. The emergence of rookie DeJuan Blair has allowed the Spurs to give Duncan plenty of rest and I expect that he’ll be rested even more this season to keep him fresh for a playoff run. As a real life player, Duncan can still bring it since his per/36 numbers don’t show any decline at all. Fantasy is different from real life basketball though. The more a player is on the court, the more fantasy value he has. Unfortunately, Duncan’s opportunity has fallen below the guys ranked above him. He still put up a good line in 2009, especially in the points (17.9 per game), rebounds (10.1 per game) and blocks (1.5 per game) categories. Duncan’s final ranking will depend on how many minutes he gets and the progression of DeJuan Blair’s game in his second season.
Zach Randolph (35.0 FPS, 49.4 eFG%, 77.8 FT%, 38 MPG)
Randolph had some legal problems in the offseason and it looked like he was going to be named as the kingpin of a marijuana supply ring in Indianapolis, but it seemed to blow over and nothing really came of it. Hopefully, it’s in the past and won’t resurface. On the court, Randolph was a steady producer in the points (20.8 per game) and rebounds (11.7 per game) categories. I’ve seen many people complain that he’s just a two category player, but I’ll happily take 21 and 12 from a guy you can scoop up in the middle rounds. His shooting percentages are average and won’t kill you, but he doesn’t block many shots (.4 per game). His Jumper/Inside split is 51%/49% and he has a free throw rate of 34.8, which got him to the line 465 times. He doesn’t shoot the three ball and his defense is a little suspect. He’s solid value if you can get him in the middle rounds.
David West (30.6 FPS, 50.8 eFG%, 86.5 FT%, 37 MPG)
David West is one of those guys who isn’t spectacular and you don’t really notice him, but he seems to always produce a solid night. Consistent, dependable production is a good thing, as long as you can get it at a good price. West’s stat lines over the last four seasons have been remarkably consistent. He’s a good scorer (19.0 per game) and rebounder (7.5 per game) and he can also produce in the defensive categories with .9 steals per game and .7 blocks per game. West has a Jumper/Inside split of 62%/38%, but a weak free throw rate of only 27.9 which got him to the line 342 times last season where he converted at an excellent 86.5% rate. He also improved his FG% to 50.5% in 2009. He doesn’t shoot the three and his defense is average on most nights. He doesn’t have much upside from last year’s stats, but there isn’t much downside either.
LaMarcus Aldridge (29.7 FPS, 49.7 eFG%, 75.7 FT%, 38 MPG)
Aldridge has turned into a solid PF option, missing only 11 games in the last three seasons while averaging about 37 minutes per game. His scoring averages over the last three seasons: 17.8, 18.1 and 17.9. He doesn’t get many blocks (.6 per game) for someone who is 6’11, but his rebounding is good at 8.0 per game. Aldridge has a Jumper/Inside breakdown of 64%/36%, with a free throw rate of 26.0. He doesn’t shoot the three. He should turn in a line similar to his 2009 numbers.
Kevin Love (27.5 FPS, 47.8 eFG%, 81.5 FT%, 29 MPG)
Love is a very similar player to Troy Murphy. He’s an excellent rebounder with 11.0 in only 28.6 minutes per game in 2009. He is developing a three point shot, launching 1.8 per game and hitting 33%. The Timberwolves traded away Al Jefferson, so Love should move into the starting power forward spot and improve on the 29 minutes per game he played last season. With Darko Milicic at center, Love should have a monster year rebounding. He’s a little soft in the blocks category with only .4 per game. His Jumper/Inside split is 52%/48%, but his FG% is a little weak (45.0%) for a big man. He has a free throw rate of 42.7 and converts at an 81.5% rate at the line. Love should probably shoot the jumper less and work more inside to get his percentages up.
Blake Griffin – He’s looking awesome this preseason and if he can stay healthy there’s no telling how far up the rankings he could move this year. You will probably have to reach for him, but it might be worth it.
Troy Murphy (28.5 FPS, 55.1 eFG%, 79.8 FT%, 33 MPG)
Update: Out with back problems.
Murphy was traded to New Jersey this offseason and he should put up good minutes and stats, especially since this is a contract year for him. He does have to contend with rookie Derrick Favors, but I think Murphy will get all the minutes he can handle. Murphy is a perimeter oriented PF with a Jumper/Inside breakdown of 72%/28%. He is an excellent three point shooter, putting up 4.6 a game last season and hitting 38%. He had a great season shooting the ball with a 55.1 eFG%, but he could see some regression back to his career 49.4 eFG%. He’s an excellent rebounder, grabbing 10.2 in only 32.6 minutes per game in 2009. If you like to build your team around three point shooters, Murphy is a good pick at the PF spot, and he’ll still get you a ton of rebounds.
Antawn Jamison (29.8 FPS, 50.2 eFG%, 64.7 FT%, 37 MPG)
Now that King James has left the building, Jamison should be the first or second option on offense for the Cavs, which really helps his fantasy value. Jamison had a Usage rate of 23.9 last season and I expect that he could exceed that in 2010. Jamison’s game is a bit limited since he doesn’t provide many blocks (.3 per game) or assists (1.3 per game). His best categories are scoring (18.7 per game) and rebounding (8.4 per game). He also has a unique talent for shooting the three pointer, which is a rarity for most power forwards. He attempted 3.7 per game, hitting 34%. Keep this in mind if you like to build your H2H fantasy team around three pointers and scoring. His Jumper/Inside split is 60%/40% which shows a bit of a perimeter influence. He also doesn’t draw much contact with a free throw rate of only 29.0. Another hidden factor helping Jamison is the chance that Cleveland will be moving to a more uptempo game under new head coach Byron Scott. Jamison is one of those guys whose draft ranking really depends on what categories you are targeting with the position.
Kevin Garnett (26.4 FPS, 52.1 eFG%, 83.7 FT%, 30 MPG)
Garnett is another player that it hurts for me to rank this low, but the numbers don’t lie. He’s 34 years old and those knees have a million miles on them, so he’s an injury risk. Garnett has morphed into more of a defensive player and he’s one of those guys who’s much better in real life than in fantasy, so don’t confuse the two. His minutes per game for the last three seasons: 32.8, 31.1 and 29.9. I don’t see him exceeding 30 minutes per game this season. His Jumper/Inside split of 70%/30% shows that he isn’t the same take it to the basket player that he used to be and he doesn’t draw nearly as much contact, with his free throw rate sinking to 28.6. Garnett has all the intangibles, but his fantasy game is slipping. Someone in your league is going to overpay for the Kevin Garnett name. Don’t be that guy.
Andray Blatche (24.1 FPS, 48.5 eFG%, 74.4 FT%, 28 MPG)
If you want to gamble on a power forward with a big upside, give Blatche a spot on your roster, but just don’t overpay too much. He finally got a chance to shine after Antawn Jamison was traded and he put up a nice line in only 27.9 minutes per game, but he could bump up to around 35-36 minutes a night this season. His shooting (48.5 eFG% and 74.4 FT%) could use some improvement. Blatche has a Jumper/Inside split of 64%/36% and he has a surprisingly low free throw rate of 23.4 which got him to the line just 234 times. The downside for Blatche is that he is recovering from a broken foot and there is no guarantee how that is going to heal, however that could get you a lower price on draft day, so keep an eye on his injury recovery.
Jeff Green (25.5 FPS, 50.2 eFG%, 74.0 FT%, 37 MPG)
Green is an overrated player. His stat line should be much better for someone who plays 37 minutes per game, but I’m going to rank him here in hopes that he takes a step forward in his development. By comparison, Kevin Garnett put up a similar line in 8 less minutes per game, and he’s 10 years older. Green’s Jumper/Inside split is 62%/38% and he doesn’t draw contact as shown by his free throw rate of 20.8, which got him to the line only 223 times where he converted at a weak 74% rate. His rebounding is weak with only 6.0 in 37.1 minutes of action per game. His defense is also suspect as the Thunder have a 107.7 defensive rating with Green on the court and a 97.7 rating with him off the court. Keep an eye on Green in the preseason to see if he is showing improvement, otherwise you can probably expect something similar to 2009′s line.
J.J. Hickson – This could be his year to break out. Cleveland is going to need scoring and rebounding and Hickson should be able to contribute in both categories. He’s going to have some bad games, but overall he should be fine. Grab him in keeper leagues for sure.
Al Harrington (25.6 FPS, 50.3 eFG%, 75.7 FT%, 31 MPG)
Things are a mess in Denver right now, but if it breaks right, Harrington could be a fantasy steal. Power forward Kenyon Martin is still dealing with an injury and Melo’s scoring could be on his way out with a trade, which would leave the Nuggets needing a PF and scoring. That matches Harrington perfectly. He played 30.5 minutes per game last season and averaged 17.7 points a night. He’s a good three point shooter from the PF spot, putting up 5.7 and hitting 34%. He’s got a Jumper/Inside split of 65%/35%, so he can also take it inside if he needs to. Harrington had a free throw rate of 30.8 which got him to the line 317 times where he converted at a 75.7% rate. Keep an eye on what happens in Denver and be ready to move Harrington up the rankings if he gets a starting job.
Rashard Lewis (21.5 FPS, 53.9 eFG%, 80.6 FT%, 33 MPG)
Lewis wasn’t much of a fantasy player last season, posting career lows in minutes per game (32.9) and Usage (19.4). He’s turned into a defensive player who is asked to play the perimeter on offense. He’s still a great three point shooter, taking 5.9 per game and hitting 40%. His Jumper/Inside split is 83%/17% and his free throw rate is 22.4, good for only 180 trips to the line last season. His rebounding is weak for the PF position with only 4.4 per game and he swatted just .4 shots per game. He should probably be avoided unless you can get him with Small Forward eligibility or you are building your team around three point shooting.
Elton Brand (23.3 FPS, 48.0 eFG%, 73.8 FT%, 30 MPG)
Brand can’t get any worse can he? I’m hoping that a new head coach and different offensive system can rejuvenate Brand’s game, but I’m not counting on it. He managed only 30.2 minutes per game with a Usage rate of 21.7. Philadelphia’s roster is a little uncertain right now, but they may start Evan Turner at SG and Iguodala at SF which leaves Brand competing with Thaddeus Young for minutes at the PF spot. I’ve also seen some speculation that Brand might get some play at center now that Samuel Dalembert is gone. Brand contributes in the steals (1.1 per game) and blocks (1.1 per game) categories. His Jumper/Inside split is 70%/30%, with a free throw rate of 27.1. Brand’s final ranking will depend a lot on what happens in camp, so definitely keep an eye on his role before drafting him.
Luis Scola (26.9 FPS, 51.4 eFG%, 77.9 FT%, 33 MPG)
Yao Ming is back and that should probably tell you all you need to know about Scola’s fantasy status this season. The Rockets also have Chuck Hayes and the newly drafted Patrick Patterson who will need minutes. Scola will probably start at PF, but I don’t see him getting more than 30 minutes per game, which limits his fantasy upside. Keep an eye on Ming during the preseason and if he doesn’t look healthy, then slide Scola up the rankings.
Paul Millsap (22.6 FPS, 53.8 eFG%, 69.3 FT%, 28 MPG)
Millsap was looking like a great pick until the Jazz signed Al Jefferson. Millsap’s minutes are uncertain, but I think he should get somewhere around 33-34 per game, at least until Mehmet Okur returns from injury. Once Okur returns, there is a chance that Millsap could lose minutes if Utah goes big with Okur and Jefferson on the court together. Millsap has a Jumper/Inside split of 50%/50% and he doesn’t mind drawing contact with a 36.9 free throw rate, however his FT% of 69.3 could use some improvement. He’s a help in the blocks (1.2 per game) and steals (.8 per game) categories. Hopefully, Millsap can improve on his 18.7 Usage rate, but I’d let things play out in the preseason just to make sure before using a draft pick on him, since someone in your league will undoubtably overreach here.
Carl Landry – He’s won the starting PF spot for Sacramento and makes a nice late round pickup. Very solid in points and rebounds.
Drew Gooden – He’s got the starting PF spot for Milwaukee and may even see some time at center while Bogut is out. He’s been looking pretty strong this preseason and makes a great late round flier.
Tyler Hansbrough/Josh McRoberts – They have a battle going on right now and either of them would make a great late round gamble.
Power Forwards outside the Top 20 who could make their way onto the rankings as the season approaches:
Anthony Randolph – It’s looking like Randolph may end up on the Center rankings or possibly even the SF rankings with Amare playing PF, so I’m going to wait until camp gets going to see what the Knicks are going to do with him. He’s going to be a sleeper no matter which position the Knicks give him.
Kenyon Martin - He doesn’t seem to be recovering well from knee surgery and Al Harrington will be stealing minutes.
Lamar Odom – He’s solid and should once again be the first big man off the bench in LA. Andrew Bynum’s injury recovery will dictate Odom’s minutes.
Charlie Villanueva – He was just horrible last season and only saw 23.7 minutes of court time a night. He’s going to have to pick it up to be worthy of a fantasy roster spot.
Michael Beasley – He’s now stuck behind Kevin Love, so minutes are going to be difficult to get, unless he gets moved to SF. Keep an eye on where he plays in camp.
Tyrus Thomas - He’s going to get a shot at the PF spot in Charlotte, but I’m not sure he can handle it and the Bobcats still have Boris Diaw to platoon with Thomas.
Hakeem Warrick- Warrick was brought in to fill the spot vacated by Amare Stoudemire, but he’s unproven and has to share minutes with Robin Lopez.
Jason Thompson - I think Landry and Thompson are going to get minutes, but I’d like to see what the Kings are going to do with DeMarcus Cousins before ranking them.
Other Power Forwards to consider: Boris Diaw, Taj Gibson, Udonis Haslem, Yi Jianlian, Anderson Varejao, Drew Gooden, DeJuan Blair, Chuck Hayes, Chris Andersen, Craig Smith, Jason Maxiell, Amir Johnson.