Aug 11, 2010 Blog
2010-2011 NBA Fantasy Basketball Shooting Guard Draft Rankings
Rankings for the Shooting Guard position using our FPS Ranking System will be updated throughout the offseason. Updated rankings can always be found under the 2010-2011 Rankings Tab on the Fantasy Basketball Daily Homepage.
Kobe Bryant (37.8 FPS, 48.8 eFG%, 81.1 FT%, 38 MPG)
Kobe is an easy choice for the top spot on the shooting guard board this year and he should safely put up stats similar to last season’s great Laker championship fantasy line. There hasn’t been much adjustment to LA’s lineup and I expect Kobe will again average in the 36-38 minutes per game range. The only concern for Bryant is his numerous nagging injuries. He recently underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right knee, but should be ready for camp. He’s also got the finger injury and interestingly Kobe posted FG%, FT% and 3PT% numbers in 2009 which were all below his career averages. If he’s still there in your first round, grab him.
Dwyane Wade (40.4 FPS, 50.0 eFG%, 76.1 FT%, 36 MPG)
Wade falls out of contention for the top SG spot with the arrival of LeBron James and Chris Bosh. He’s still going to have a great line, but probably not quite as good as his 2009 stats. Wade had a Usage stat of 34.9 last season and I don’t think there is any way he gets close to that again in 2010. He’s a great shot blocker from the SG position, swatting 1.1 shots per game last season. Wade’s also a huge help if your league counts free throws made. His 46.5 free throw rate earned him 702 trips to the line where he converted 534 (76.1%). 25.9% of his 2009 scoring total came from free throws. Wade’s game is taking it to the basket as evidenced by his Jumper/Inside split of 63%/37%. His three point shooting percentage of 29% limits his help in that category. If you miss out on Kobe, happily accept Wade on your squad.
Joe Johnson – (31.3 FPS, 50.5 eFG%, 81.8 FT%, 38 MPG)
Johnson signed a huge contract this summer and I think he’ll be motivated to show the fans and management that he deserves the money. Johnson is more of a perimeter player with a Jumper/Inside split of 79%/21%. He has a poor free throw rate of 19.4 and only earned 269 trips to the stripe. Johnson fired up 350 three pointers last year, hitting 37% of them. He’s great at creating his own shot in isolation, but he can be shut down on some nights when guarded by tough perimeter defenders. The only concerning variable with Johnson is a new head coach who may prefer a ball movement offense, which isn’t really Joe’s game. He should be a safe pick if you like last season’s numbers.
Brandon Roy (30.8 FPS, 50.8%, 78.0 FT%, 37 MPG)
The risk on Roy is his injury history and the right knee surgery he underwent to repair a torn miniscus suffered in April. He also had surgery in 2008 to repair the same type of injury in his left knee. Are his knees weak? I don’t know. Roy is a below average three point shooter putting up 3.4 per game and hitting just 33%. He has a good free throw rate of 42.4 which got him to the line 6.8 times a game where he converted 78%. 24.7% of his 2009 scoring came from the line. Roy’s defensive statistics are weak as he managed only .9 steals per game. Another factor limiting Roy is the slow pace of the Blazers offense. I could see possibly flipping Roy and Ellis here, so keep an eye on his health before determining his final draft ranking
Monta Ellis (36.2 FPS, 47.6 eFG%, 75.3 FT%, 42 MPG)
The first stat that jumps out for Ellis should be the 41.4 minutes per game he played last season. Due to team injuries, he and Curry were forced to play way more minutes than they should have and it is questionable if he’ll get that many this season. I could see that figure dropping to somewhere around 37-38 per game. Ellis is a big help in the steals category with 2.2 last season. His biggest drawbacks might be his turnover rate of 3.8 per game, FG% of 44.9% and 3PT% of 33.8%. Ellis has a Jumper/Inside split of 66%/34%, but he still fires up 3.6 threes per game hitting only 33%. For someone who drives as much as Ellis, he doesn’t really get to the line as much as he should, with a free throw rate of only 27.6. On a running Warriors team, Ellis is fantasy gold if you can stand the subpar shooting averages.
Stephen Jackson (30.3 FPS, 46.9 eFG%, 77.9 FT%, 39 MPG)
Jackson actually saw an increase in most stat categories with his trade from Golden State to Charlotte. His Usage stat of 27.8 with the Bobcats was the highest of his career. He brings his game every night and is a safe SG option if you miss out on one of the elite. He’s probably going to see some time at SF, so check your league position eligibility numbers. His shooting percentages are a little weak and his three point shooting is suspect, taking 4.9 per game while hitting only 33%. Jackson’s game is taking it to the basket and he should do more of that this season. His Jumper/Inside split is 65%/35% and he has a free throw rate of 30.6. Jackson gets into turnover trouble (3.2 per game) when he is asked to run the offense and this may be a problem this year since Charlotte just traded away their starting point guard, Raymond Felton.
Tyreke Evans (32.0 FPS, 47.3 eFG%, 74.8 FT%, 37 MPG)
Evans should probably be higher, but I think he suffers from the same thing as Curry – last season he was basically the only thing going in Sacramento. He jacked up 16 shots a game because the rest of the team was a mess. The Kings have added Samuel Dalembert and DeMarcus Cousins to their collection of bigs, which already includes Carl Landry and Jason Thompson. I could see the offense flowing more inside this season for the Kings. Beno Udrih might run the point with Evans at SG, which may hurt Evans’ assist numbers. Evans is also a driver, which might not be such a great thing with all those big bodies now down low. Evans Jumper/Inside game breaks down to 47%/53%. His free throw rate is high at 39.9, but he’s a little below aveage once he gets to the line, making only 74.8%. He doesn’t have much of a three point shot, taking only 2.0 per game last year, hitting just 25%. Evans is a high risk, high reward player, but given how things could form in Sacramento, he might move up the rankings as the season approaches.
Kevin Martin (26.8 FPS, 46.8 eFG%, 87.6 FT%, 35.5 MPG)
I think Kevin Martin is probably one of the more overhyped SG’s and everyone is aware of his fragility and injury history. Martin saw decreases in his FG% and 3PT% last season. His shooting, which used to be his strength, is starting to become a concern as he has shown a decrease in his eFG% for five straight seasons. He shot 4.6 threes per game last year, hitting only 33%, well below his career average of 38%. He is still one of the best at getting to the line with a free throw rate of 49.1, which got him to the stripe 7.4 times a game where he converted at a 87.6% rate. Martin has a big upside, but he also has a terrible injury history and declining shooting. He’s also got the sharpshooting Chase Budinger (52.2 eFG%) challenging him, so be careful here.
O.J. Mayo (25.0 FPS, 51.6 eFG%, 80.9 FT%, 38 MPG)
Mayo is about as consistent as they come with stat lines in 2008 and 2009 that were almost identical. There has been some talk of Mayo playing some PG this season, so his assists could bump up, but his turnovers might increase as well. He’s a good shooter and efficient with the three pointer, firing up 4.3 a game last year, hitting 38%. Mayo is decent in the steals category with 1.2 per game and he’s got a high minutes per game average, so you can count on plenty of fantasy opportunity. If you want a safe, dependable SG option then Mayo makes a great pick.
The next 7 or 8 players might be best thought of in a tier since they are all pretty similar in value. The rankings for these guys might fluctuate depending on training camp and ranking them in order is difficult considering their similar values. Where you select each one might best depend on what needs you have for your fantasy team.
Vince Carter (24.0 FPS, 48.6 eFG%, 84.0 FT%, 30.8 MPG)
While Kevin Martin is overhyped, Carter has the opposite problem. The media loves to bash Vince, but his 2009 per 36 minute stat averages mirror his career averages. The fantasy problem for Carter is JJ Redick and a reduction in playing time to only 30.8 MPG last season. Carter is a scorer and will move more toward a single category player as he ages. His Usage rate in 2009 was 25.2, which is well below his career average of 29.4. He can still knock down the three, taking 4.3 per game and hitting 37%. With the improvement in JJ Redick’s game and Carter at 33 years old, I think Orlando would be wise to keep his minutes for 2010 similar to last season’s, however this would really hurt his fantasy value.
Jason Richardson (23.8 FPS, 55.3 eFG%, 73.9 FT%, 31.5 MPG)
I’m debating on what to do with Richardson now that Amare Stoudemire is no longer with Phoenix. While Richardson might be leaned on more for scoring, he won’t have the luxury of Amare drawing double teams inside leaving Richardson open outside. Defenses will no longer sag, but might move out to defend the perimeter against Nash and Richardson daring Phoenix to try and force the ball inside more. He is a good rebounder from the shooting guard spot, grabbing 5.1 a game. His free throw rate is low at 18.4 and his success rate at the line was only 73.9%, which is surprising for someone with an excellent eFG% of 55.3%. He’s a big help in the three point category, putting up 5.1 per game and hitting 39%.
John Salmons (23.0 FPS, 50.1 eFG%, 83.0 FT%, 34.9 MPG)
Salmons found a great home last season with his trade to Milwaukee and he returns with a starting spot secure and a pretty good team around him. I’ve chosen to put Salmons in the SG rankings, but he could find himself playing some SF this year so keep an eye on his position eligibility. Salmons is a solid all around player who isn’t huge in any single category, but seems to contribute in each one. He has worked hard on his shooting and produced a very good 50.1 eFG% in 2009. He took 3.8 shots from three point range, hitting 38%. He has a Jumper/Inside split of 72%/28% and does a pretty good job of getting to the line with a 30.8 free throw rate. He’s nothing flashy, but he’s dependable and will get good minutes.
Manu Ginobili (26.5 FPS, 51.4 eFG%, 87.0 FT%, 29 MPG)
If Ginobili could just get more than 29 minutes a game, he would be a fantasy star. His per 36 minute stats are excellent, but he was limited to 28.7 MPG in 2009, which is actually about a minute more than his career per game average of 27.8 MPG. The thing that jumps out for Manu is the 4.9 assists per game stat. If you are weak at the PG spot and need help in the assist category, Ginobili is an excellent shooting guard to select to balance out any PG weakness on your fantasy team. His shooting averages are solid and he can hit the three, taking 4.7 per game and hitting 38%. His Jumper/Inside figure breaks down to 67%/33% and he is good at getting to the line with a 39.3 free throw rate. He’s also a great defensive player.
Eric Gordon (22.8 FPS, 52.5 eFG%, 74.2 FT%, 36.0 MPG)
I think Gordon could surprise everyone this season with a breakout performance. He won’t be 22 until December and he has all the skills on offense, but he needs work on defense. Gordon’s Jumper/Inside split of 64%/36% describes his game well. He likes to take it to the basket and doesn’t mind contact as evidenced by his free throw rate of 38.1. His free throw shooting percentage of 74.2% could use some work. He took 5.2 threes per game last year, hitting 37%. He had some minor nagging hamstring and groin injuries in 2009, but if he can play better defense and keep himself on the court, then he should have a very productive fantasy season and will likely move up my rankings.
Ray Allen (22.7 FPS, 55.1 eFG%, 91.3 FT%, 35.2 MPG)
At 35 years old, Allen just keeps on rolling along. His shooting averages are incredible, but the rest of his fantasy game is a little soft. If you like to build your team around good percentages, Allen is a must pick. He took 5.0 threes per game last season, hitting 36%. He’s pretty much limited to being a perimeter player with a Jumper/Inside breakdown of 77%/23%. He gets to the line decently with a free throw rate of 26.0 and he’s money when he gets there converting 91.3%. Allen’s fantasy value will depend on his health and minutes.
Marcus Thornton (19.9 FPS, 51.7 eFG%, 81.4 FT%, 26 MPG)
Thornton saved many fantasy teams down the stretch last season with his excellent shooting. I’m not totally convinced yet, but he could be a huge steal in drafts if you can get him late. Thornton took 4.3 threes per game, hitting 37%. He has a Jumper/Inside breakdown of 64%/36%. His defense is sketchy and this is what could get him in trouble and cause him to lose minutes. New Orleans also has to work Darren Collison into the guard mix, but not totally at the expense of Chris Paul. See what Thornton’s role is in training camp before determining his final draft position.
Mike Miller (20.7 FPS, 59.6 eFG%, 82.4 FT%, 33.4 MPG)
Talk about falling into a great situation. Miller finds himself playing with LeBron, Wade and Bosh and probably getting all the minutes he can handle. Miller will be asked to do a lot of dirty work and I think the big three will feed Miller enough stats to keep him happy. The stats that jump out for Miller are the rebounds and assists. Miller has always been a good rebounder, averaging 5.0 rebounds over his career. He’s a deadly shooter and took 3.2 threes a game last year, hitting a huge 48%. Over his career, he’s a 41% shooter from three. Many owners will pass on Miller because they think the the big three are going to hog the stats. Just grab Miller and thank them.
Jamal Crawford (23.8 FPS, 52.3 eFG%, 85.7 FT%, 31 MPG)
Crawfod suffers the same limitation as Ginobili since he only gets about 31 minutes of action a game. With Joe Johnson, Mike Bibby and Jeff Teague all in the mix, I don’t see how Crawford is going to exceed last season’s MPG. Crawford had an excellent year shooting the ball in 2009, but there is definitely a chance for a 2010 reversion to his career average of 47.5 eFG% and 35.0 3PT%. He put up 5.4 threes per game last year, hitting 38%. Crawford’s Jumper/Inside split is 82%/18%, which shows his perimeter dominated game. He is a liability on defense, which further limits his MPG. If you own Joe Johnson, Crawford might be great insurance while still producing respectable stats on your fantasy team.
Richard Hamilton (24.3 FPS, 43.7 eFG%, 84.6%, 34 MPG)
Hamilton is a risky pick this year, but if you need scoring and some assists from the SG spot, he makes a nice selection. The thing that worries me about Hamilton is the possibility that he gets traded into a supporting bench role midseason. He’s also moving closer to being a two category player. The 4.4 assists are a nice bonus from a SG. Hamilton’s Jumper/Inside breakdown is 90%/10%, but he still manages to get to the line with a free throw rate of 33.6 and he converts at a 84.6% clip.
Wilson Chandler (24.1 FPS, 50.2 eFG%, 80.6 FT%, 36 MPG)
With Amare coming in at PF and Danilo Gallinari manning the SF spot in New York, Chandler will see most of his time at shooting guard. I’ve probably got him ranked too low right now, but he had some off the court problems this summer and it might take him some time work back into favor. Chandler is a good source of rebounds and blocks from the SG spot if you are building your fantasy squad around those categories. He’s got a Jumper/Inside split of 62%/38% and he should probably scrap the three point shooting since he took 2.3 per game last year and only hit 27%. His free throw rate is also low at 18.6, getting to the line only 2.5 times a game, which isn’t very good for someone with a Jumper/Inside game breakdown like Chandler’s. He should definitely be watched closely in camp and he’s one of the players whose rank will likely change greatly before the season starts.
Terrence Williams (15.6 FPS, 42.5 eFG%, 71.5 FT%, 23 MPG)
I’m giving Williams a spot this high based purely on breakout potential. In 2009 with New Jersey’s coaching situation, he really didn’t get a chance to shine in a consistent every night role. He could get that shot in 2010. Williams is another guy who you want to give a serious look if you are trying to pad the rebound category with you shooting guard. 4.5 rebounds per game in only 23 minutes a night is a pretty big number. Williams’ shooting needs some work though. Keep an eye on his role during camp.
Kirk Hinrich (20.2 FPS, 47.8 eFG%, 75.2 FT%, 33.5 MPG)
Captain Kirk has two problems, John Wall and Gilbert Arenas. I’m not sure how many minutes Hinrich will get, which makes his fantasy value hard to figure. How fast can Wall pick up the offense and defense? How long before Arenas flakes out again? His final draft position depends on his role. Hinrich can get some assists and play both guard positions. He’s a solid shooter from three point land putting up 3.8 per game, hitting 38%. He is limited to a perimeter game and has a Jumper/Inside split of 86%/14%. He should be a good backup for your starting fantasy guards.
J.R. Smith (22.2 FPS, 49.1 eFG%, 70.6 FT%, 28 MPG)
Smith is instant offense off the bench and he’ll probably keep that role this year with Denver. He’s also a bit of an inconsistent headcase. His strength is shooting the three ball. Last season he launched 6.2 a game, hitting 34%. His Jumper/Inside split of 82%/18% shows his love for the jumpshot. Grab Smith late to pad the three point category.
Ben Gordon (18.3 FPS, 47.0 eFG%, 86.1 FT%, 28MPG)
It’s surprising that Gordon hasn’t shown more production given his offensive talents. He’s going to be in a crowded guard rotation with Rip Hamilton, Rodney Stuckey and Will Bynum. The Pistons just signed Tracy McGrady for the bench, so that might cut even further into his minutes. Gordon has been a one category player (scoring) to this point in his career and his shooting worsened last year. He fired up 3.8 threes, hitting only 32%. His eFG% of 47.0% was also well below his career average of 49.8%. His draft ranking will increase if Hamilton gets moved to another team.
Other shooting guards who will definitely find their way onto the rankings as the season approaches:
Evan Turner - He should get the starting SG spot in Philadelphia, but I’m not sure what kind of offense the Sixers have planned for him.
Raja Bell- Gets the starting shooting guard spot in Utah working with Deron Williams. He’s a career 41% shooter from three and should help greatly in that fantasy category.
Jason Terry - Things were looking pretty grim for Terry with the emergence of Rodrigue Beaubois, but Roddy just had surgery to repair a broken bone in his foot and could miss three months. See how Beaubois heals before ranking Terry.
Leandro Barbosa- He was traded to Toronto, but finds himself in a crowded guard rotation with Jose Calderon, Jarrett Jack, Linas Kleiza and DeMar DeRozan.
Rudy Fernandez – Rudy is on the trade block and should be moved before camp starts, I just don’t know where.
Anthony Morrow – Morrow landed in a great situation in New Jersey. He might get a shot at a starting role. He’ll be competing with Courtney Lee.
Courtney Lee – Competing with Anthony Morrow for a starting spot.
Ronnie Brewer- Traded to Chicago to fill the SG spot, but he has competition from Kyle Korver and possibly Rudy Fernandez if the Bulls pull the trigger on that rumored deal.
Kyle Korver – Competing with Ronnie Brewer for a starting job. Can nail the three pointer from any spot on the floor.
Wesley Matthews – Signed a huge contract with Portland, so I doubt they are going to pay him to ride the pine.
Brandon Rush – Should get a shot at the starting SG spot in Indiana.
Other Shooting Guards to consider once training camps get going: JJ Redick, Kelenna Azubuike, Nate Robinson, Randy Foye, Josh Howard, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Lou Williams, James Harden, Delonte West, Eddie House, Marquis Daniels, Quentin Richardson, Dahntay Jones, Arron Afflalo, JJ Redick, Thabo Sefolosha, JJ Barea, Anthony Parker, Chase Budinger, Linas Kleiza.